Do you feel like you bought too high? This video is for you!

Are you freaking out about your Bitcoin
right now? Do you feel like you bought
way too much at way too high a price and
you’re just chasing this thing down to
zero? If you feel like any of those
feelings, this video is for you. Okay,
so what happens is people buy Bitcoin,
their first big purchase of Bitcoin
tends to be when the price is high. Why?
Because that is what everyone does with
every investment. Nobody wants to buy an
investment when it’s tanking, especially
if it’s their first buy because they’re
new to the asset, etc., etc. So, my
first Bitcoin B buy was when it was
expensive in 2017. It was around $12,200
using round numbers, which happens to be
someone reached out to me this morning
and said, “Hey, my first big Bitcoin
purchase was at $122,000.”
And I thought, you know what, that’s
interesting because my first big Bitcoin
price, the price had gone up uh, you
know, way up in 2017 and it had come
down a little bit, but 12,200
was, you know, really high. Like the
price was only higher than that for a
very short period of time back in 2017.
And what did the price do immediately
when I bought it at 12,200? Well, it
dropped to 9,600.
These are just estimated numbers that
happen to line up exactly with the
person I was talking to. So, of all the
Bitcoin they bought, they bought uh 89%
of the Bitcoin they own now at 122,000.
Then they bought an additional 8% at
96,000 and then an additional 3% at uh
86,000. So 122 9686. Classic sort of a
lot of people are in this exact same
position. Okay. So again, I was in this
exact same position in 2017. And what
happens is you have a choice, right? The
number one thing you don’t want to do is
vomit your Bitcoin out onto the market
at a loss because that is what creates
boom bust cycles in any asset, not
unique to Bitcoin. And those are the
only people who lose money on Bitcoin,
are people who buy it at a number that
they perceive to be high. Now, in the
future, that number will look low, but
at the time it they perceive it to be
high. the mic the price drops, they buy
some more a couple times, then they just
I mean they freak out and capitulate at
the bottom. And usually, you know, the
price has gotten as low as it’s going to
get when all the people who bought at
higher prices capitulate and they all
sell at one time at a lower price. And
you can actually see this because I
follow James Czech, my favorite Bitcoin
analyst. And James Czech talks about
this a lot. He’s like, “Look, market
bottoms are put in when the people who
bought high, who bought too many high
too too many coins at too high a price,
uh, you know, capitulate at lower
prices. They just finally they can’t
take it anymore. They’re white knuckling
through and they finally capitulate.
They’re like, I can’t take it. I’m
freaking out.” You know, they’re on, you
know, they need to be talked off the
ledge and they’re like, “I just can’t
take this anymore.” And so they sell all
their Bitcoin at a big loss. So they buy
in with the, you know, the the major
purchase at 122 and they sell it all at
72 and they take a massive loss.
Meanwhile, people like me are
accumulating all the way down because if
you’ve been around long enough, you know
that Bitcoin always comes back and
always the initial purchase price looks
like a really good price in the rearview
mirror. So for example, is anybody
complaining to me that I bought Bitcoin
at 12,200?
No, because 12,200 sounds really cheap
right now, but for the next like two or
three years, which again, Bitcoin was
way more volatile back then and it took
a lot longer to get to tops and bottoms
than it does now. Uh for at least a year
or two, for all of 2018, all of 2019, I
could have bought it less than that. For
probably two and a half years, I could
have bought Bitcoin at a cheaper price
than the price that I first paid for it.
Now, again, that was temporary. That was
back then. I don’t think there’s going
to be anywhere close to two and a half
years where the price, you know, price
is down. But, uh, back then, Bitcoin was
just much more volatile and much more
uh, you know, the the the cycles took a
lot longer. Um, but anyway, 12,200
sounds like a great price. Then I bought
more at 9,600, more at 86 8,600. I think
the cheapest I ever bought was 6,400.
Now, what did I do at 6,400? First of
all, I never sold that Bitcoin. The the
Bitcoin I bought at 12,200 and I never
sold it. So I never capitulated which
means after a couple years I was up on
my investment and it started looking
like a genius investment but that took a
couple years in this case. I don’t think
it’s going to take a couple years to
reclaim 122 but you know it’s also not
going to happen overnight either. Uh but
I made the mistake. So I did not make
the first mistake which is capitulating
and selling. That is how you lose money.
I did not make that mistake but I did
make the mistake of not chasing Bitcoin
farther down. I had told myself when I
was buying Bitcoin at 9,000, I was like,
“Look, if it drops to half this price,
if it drops to 4,500, I’m going to buy a
bunch of Bitcoin, like a bunch.” Um, and
it dropped to 4,500. And I didn’t
because I felt just like the person who
felt who reached out to me this morning
felt where they’re like, “Look, uh, the
price is dropping. Like, what am I even
doing? I’m buying more of this assets
that’s dropping. I already own a lot of
this asset at a price that’s a lot
higher than the price it is now.” I felt
all of those same feelings back in 20
2018 because I bought initially a
relatively high price in 2017 at 12,200.
Um, in fact, my buy price initially
would have been even higher. I tried to
buy at about 16,000, which was like
barely below the all-time high in 2017.
I tried to buy, but my bank kicked back
uh my initial purchase, and by the time
I got it replaced, the price had dropped
to 12,200. So if the price if my
purchase had gone through as planned
using 10x numbers from today, it would
have been the equivalent of purchasing
at 160,000 rather than, you know, 122,
which equates, you know, 10 to one back
down to 12,200. So again, the number one
mistake you can make is capitulating on
the Bitcoin you have, meaning you give
up. You throw you throw in the title
towel, you sell what you have, it’s
over, you know, you’re done with
Bitcoin, and then everybody else
benefits but you. And literally, you
were the person who gifted a bunch of
your wealth to the world by buying it
high and selling it low, which is the
opposite of anything you ever want to do
with investing. So, but what I should
have done is I should have bought more
all the way down. Um, had I bought more
all the way down, I would own a lot of
Bitcoin. That’s a lot cheaper than
6,400. But as it was, 6,400 was the
cheapest I ever bought Bitcoin. And I
could have had for an extended period of
time I could have bought a lot more for
a lot cheaper and I didn’t. Um so I I
thankfully I did not make the first
mistake which is actually selling but I
did make the second mistake which is not
buying more. So if you’re in that
position first of all again it’s normal.
Virtually everyone in Bitcoin started
2013, 2017, 2021 or 2025. Almost nobody
got into Bitcoin between those years.
The reason is each of those years were
were years that Bitcoin was going up and
people buy stuff for the first time when
it’s going up. It’s very rare you run
into somebody that bought their first
Bitcoin in 2015 or 16 or 2018 or 19 or
20. I mean, those were years when
Bitcoin was not on a huge upswing and so
very rarely does people buy their
initial significant purchase at those
prices. Okay? So, if you’re in that
position, it’s normal. Also understand
that in the future, the same will be
true. In the future, when your Bitcoin
that you bought at 122,000 is up by 10x,
someone will buy it from you for 1.22
million, which is 10x where we are here.
And guess what? That $1.22 22 million
per bitcoin that you’re going to be
selling in the future. The person who’s
buying that in, I don’t know, 2034, pick
a number, some, you know, 10 years from
now or whatever, 2036. That person
buying it will be buying their first
Bitcoin expensive. Why? Because in the
past, everybody bought it when it was
expensive for their first buy. In the
future, in the present, everybody buys
it when it’s expensive in the present.
In the future, the people who are buying
Bitcoin for the first time will be
buying it at 1.22 22 million and then
the price will crash down to I don’t
know 900,000 something I don’t know and
they’ll be freaking out because they’ll
be like I bought Bitcoin at 1.22 million
now it’s 900,000 you know I’m 20 or 30%
down on my investment I can’t believe I
did this and some of them will
capitulate they will sell they will buy
at 1.22 million they will sell at
900,000 and but guess what a bunch of
bitcoins are going to get bought for
above 1.2 2 million and you, my friend,
will be one of the people selling it to
them because again, you’re like, “Okay,
I’m going to buy, you know, whatever you
want to buy.” You’re you want to buy a
vacation house. You want to send your
kids to college, whatever it is. At some
point, you’re going to be selling some
of that Bitcoin, and the people buying
it for the very first time will be
buying it at expensive prices, and you
will be selling it at expensive prices,
and then the price will drop again
because that’s what happens with all
assets. It doesn’t matter if it’s Tesla,
Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, you
know, you name it. Any of the
Magnificent Seven stocks, gold, silver,
everybody makes their first big buy of
that asset when it’s going up, which
tends to be in retrospect something that
looks like high prices. Now, you may be
thinking, “Well, Joel, if you know this
and you’ve been around this stuff for
eight or nine years, why don’t you only
advocate people buy Bitcoin when it’s on
sale?” The answer is because I don’t
know what on sale is. Back at 126,000,
James Czech said, “This is definitely
not the top.” And again, he’s the best
there is. He’s the best Bitcoin analyst
that exists in the world. And he was
like, “The good thing we know about 126
is all the indicators say this is not
the top of a price cycle.” Well, guess
what? He was wrong. And he’s the best
there is. And he will be the first to
admit that he’s guessing. And I’m
guessing. So, it’s like, if I’m only
going to advocate for people to buy
Bitcoin when I think it’s cheap, nobody
knows when that is. I thought 122 was
cheap. I have Bitcoin I bought at 122. I
have Bitcoin I bought at 124. I don’t
think I’ve bought Bitcoin above 124, but
it was only above 124 for like part of a
day. Like it was practically not even
high. So basically, I owned Bitcoin that
was almost as high as you could have
bought it. Again, if I thought it was
going to go down, I would have waited.
But nobody knows. So in retrospect, back
in 2017, if somebody had come to me and
said, “I’ll tell you when to buy
Bitcoin. just wait for it to be cheap. I
never would have bought it because I
never would have bought that first
Bitcoin at at 12,200. And then when the
price started dropping, I would have
said, “Well, why would I be buying it
now? You know, if it’s dropping,
something must be wrong with it. The
party must be over. I must have been the
last person to buy expensive Bitcoin
before it goes to zero.” And that’s the
way everybody thinks. Um, so, uh,
there’s never a bad time to buy Bitcoin.
If you’re patient, it always eventually
goes up. and your initial purchase that
sounds and feels and looks expensive
will always eventually prove to uh you
know to be a good a good investment.
Okay, knowing all of that, the question
is why do we not just dollar cost
average DCA? Why don’t we just buy the
same amount of Bitcoin every single uh
every day or every week? Usually it’s
weekly. Most people dollar cost average
weekly. Um and the answer is there’s
multiple problems with that. First of
all, all of the research says that 89%
of the time lumpsum purchases outperform
dollar cost averaging. Something like
that. Different studies do different
things, but a ridiculously high percent
of the time, lump sum purchases, meaning
a big slug upfront, outperforms dollar
cost averaging. only under rare
circumstances when you start right near
the price at the top of a price cycle
which is impossible to predict and then
you dollar cost average all the way
through the trough does it outperform
lump sum purchases so in general I can’t
advocate dollar cost averaging when all
of the research says generally that
underperforms yes it has lower
volatility so it’s a little easier to
hang on but it generally underperforms
so I advocate for the strategy that
generally does better which is buy as
much Bitcoin as you can and hold on to
it for as long as conceivably possible.
And something like 89% of the time you
end up ahead doing that. Um, of course
that does require you not to capitulate,
not to dump all your Bitcoin and vomit
them on the market at the bottom of a
price cycle. But again, I trust that
y’all can figure out how to hold on to
your Bitcoin and not vomit it into the
market. Um so if if lumps on purchasing
outperforms dollar cost averaging for
the vast majority of the people the vast
majority of the time then that’s a
better strategy most for most people
most of the time which is why I don’t
advocate dollar cost averaging also with
dollar cost averaging you have a problem
which is okay over what time period and
are you going to put half of your money
in upfront and half of it dollar cost
averaging or are you going to dollar
cost average all of it again nobody has
a good answer to that people are like oh
just dollar cost average it’s like well
over what time period? Well, they have
no idea. Well, that works great if you
get a paycheck every two weeks and you
put a $100 in every week for the rest of
your life. Well, that’s great, but most
people are not in that situation. Most
people have $5,000, $10,000. They have
some amount that they want to invest
sooner rather than later. And nobody has
a good answer for, okay, if somebody has
$10,000 today and they want to buy
Bitcoin, someone’s like, oh, well, just
dollar cost average. It’s like, okay,
for how long? You can’t just say
dollar cost average without giving a
time period. And of course, nobody has a
good time period because six months, I
mean, if you had started the middle of
last year and dollar cost average, you
would have basically dollar cost
averaged the most expensive Bitcoin of
the entire cycle. So, there’s just no
good answer for how long to dollar cost
average. Uh, and again, the research all
says that lump sum purchasing
outperforms uh dollar cost averaging. It
just does. Uh, so anyway, you’re not
alone. If you bought expensive Bitcoin,
now you’re feeling bad about it. Welcome
to the club. This is how all investing
works. If you had ignored Bitcoin and
bought something else instead, you
probably would buy gold or silver at the
top or Tesla or Amazon or Microsoft or
Google or Nvidia or Facebook at the top
because again, that’s when people buy
things for the first time. And anyway,
all you got to do is hold on. If you buy
the right assets and you hold on to them
long enough, it doesn’t matter. Again,
it just doesn’t matter in my case that I
bought a bunch of Bitcoin at 12,200 and
I could have had it for half that
because guess what? I didn’t know.
Nobody knew. I’m just glad I bought as
much as I did. And if you bought Bitcoin
at 122 or 124,000, at some point you
will be glad you bought that Bitcoin.
It’ll look like a genius. It just might
take, you know, some number of months or
years till we get there. So, uh, let me
know if you have any questions. I’m here
to help. I’ve been through this. So has
everybody else who’s ever invested in
anything. The number one thing is just
do not vomit your Bitcoin onto the
marketplace right now.
Do not take a loss selling your Bitcoin
unless you desperately have to to save
the life of a loved one or something
like that. But, you know, from an
investing perspective, hold tight. It’ll
be fine. Bitcoin’s done this a bunch of
times and this is relatively shallow
compared to the past. So, if you want
real volatility, you had to get buy
Bitcoin prior to 2024. If you bought
Bitcoin after January 1st of 2024 or
January 10th of 2024 when the Bitcoin
exchange traded funds, ETFs were
released, that was real volatility.
Everything prior to January 10th of 2024
was real volatility. I mean, huge swings
up and down. Uh this is nothing compared
to that. And if you want an example of
the single day that I bought the most
Bitcoin in my life at a single point, it
was in 2021. again, you know, people
always buy the most in those years. And
the price changed by 42%
in one day. One day, the price changed
42% in a single day. And that’s the day
I was trying to buy Bitcoin. And I
bought it closer to the top of that
price range than to the bottom of that
42% price range. Um, so anyway,
everything will be fine in the long run.
It all works out. Uh, if you’re in that
position, welcome to the club. So is a
gazillion other people. And in the long
run, you’ll just be glad you did it.
That’s always the way it ends up turning
out in the end. So I’m here to help you.
Feel free to message me directly, text
message, Facebook Messenger. Happy to
talk anyone off the cliff that needs
talking off the cliff. I am here to
serve. Just let me know.