How to NOT get CHOPPED UP in the “CHOPSOLIDATION” (sideways grind)

When an asset has the flu, how not to
get chopped up in chopsolidation. So, I
was thinking about this today and assets
that are in bare markets are like when
people have the flu. It doesn’t last
forever. It’s not lethal. You know, you
sort of have to wait it out. And Bitcoin
is in its fifth bare market. A bare
market is when things are pessimistic.
Prices down. That’s normal. all assets
Tesla, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple,
Facebook, Google, um, Nvidia, and I
think I named all the magnificent seven
highest performing stocks of all time.
Gold, silver, you know, commodities,
they all go through periods of bare
markets, and it’s all like having the
flu. It’s like sometimes it’s soybeans
and it’s like, why are the price of soy
soybeans down for months or a year or
more at a time? Then just the asset fell
out of favor. It doesn’t mean that
nobody eats soybeans anymore. It doesn’t
mean that soybeans are not good for
anything anymore. It’s just they go
through bare markets. So in a time of a
bare market, the questions to ask are
one, is there something wrong with the
underlying asset? For example, are
people not going to eat soybeans ever
again? Like have they completely moved
on to some new crop and soybeans are
permanently out of favor? So I don’t
know anything about the soybean market,
but I can assure you in Bitcoin, money
has not fallen out of favor. The US
dollar is losing, you know, 97% of its
purchasing power over the last hundred
years. It’s lost 25% of its purchasing
power in the last five years. The US
dollar has the permanent flu. It is
always losing value. The US dollar is
never going up, only going down, down,
down, down. Okay? And people need money.
That’s not going to change. So, it’s not
like money has the flu. It’s not like we
don’t we’re not going to use money
anymore. Bitcoin still is more durable,
divisible, portable, fungeable,
verifiable, and scarce. The six monetary
properties that matter for money.
Bitcoin is still all of those things
right now, better than ever in human
history. So money doesn’t have the flu.
It’s just Bitcoin has the flu right now
because it’s in a bare market. But the
the flu is temporary. So how do you not
get chopped up in the chop solidation?
Chop solidation is up, up, up, down,
down, down, up, up, down, down, up,
down, up, down, up, up, down, down,
down, up, up, up, down, down, down. It
goes on for months. And most people get
chopped up in that chop solidation. Chop
solidation is a combination of the word
chop, as in something that’s, you know,
chopping up and down, up and down, up
and down, up and down. And consolidation
where the price of an asset, a financial
asset is going up and down. In this
case, mostly between, let’s call it, you
know, $65,000 and $73,000. And it’s just
I mean if you just draw a line it’s top
top top. It’s just crazy. Up and down up
and down up and down up and down. Um so
the first thing the number one way to
survive chop solidation when your
preferred asset and the best asset in
the world which is Bitcoin has the flu.
Don’t check the price all the time. In
fact I took the price of Bitcoin off of
my Apple Watch. I used to be able to
check the price of Bitcoin literally
every time I took looked at my watch
which was you know hundreds of times a
day. I took the price off my Apple
Watch. And I’m like, look, when I need
to check the price of Bitcoin, I reach
for my phone and I launch River or I
launch Coinbase and I check the price of
Bitcoin. I don’t need to see it every
time because when you when you see the
price of Bitcoin and it’s up from the
last time you saw it, it feels like a
pat on the back. When you see the price
of Bitcoin and it’s down from the last
time you saw it, it feels like a gut
punch. And in a day where Bitcoin’s
price goes up six times and down four
times, you know, in it does 10 price
moves in a day. Six up, four down. Guess
what? Even if it’s up, the four gut
punches feel worse than the six pats on
the back feel. So, nobody would take it
if somebody said, “Can I punch you four
times in the gut and then pat you six
times on the back?” Nobody’s like, “Oh,
that’s like 6040 in my favor.” Like, I’m
winning here. Because guess what? let
the gut punches feel worse than the back
the back the the pats on the back feel
good. So, first don’t check the price of
Bitcoin all the time. Buy as much as you
can. If you’re in active accumulation
mode, sure, check the price of Bitcoin
all the time because, you know, you
should always be thinking about Bitcoin
and buying more Bitcoin and figuring out
how to buy more Bitcoin and all of those
things should be constantly in your
mind. But if you are not in active
accumulation mode, just put it out of
your mind. Don’t think about it. Uh let
time pass. Bitcoin is typically in these
bare markets, I don’t know, from 6 to 12
months. Now, I think this one’s going to
be short. So, I think it’s going to be
more on the six month side. And we
already have a lot of those six months
behind us already because the high was
back on October 6th. And so, we’re
already o November, December, January,
February, March. We are already five
months five and a half. We’re really 5
and 1/2 months into what could be a bare
market that lasts for somewhere between
six and probably 8 months. Nobody’s
really predicting 12 months. I mean,
unless you just look at a calendar and
you think, well, you know, the low is
going to be, you know, 12 months from
the high, but that’s really, you know,
not a logical, sophisticated way to look
at it. So, we’re probably looking at, I
don’t know, 6 to 8 months, maybe 10 at
the outside. Short take is, you know,
Bitcoin should be over the flu, which is
this bare market by July, August at the
latest usually. Um, could be sooner,
could be April, May, could be today.
today could be the lowest we ever get in
the history of Bitcoin. We don’t know.
But the short take is it’s temporary.
Like the flu, it’s not deadly. You’re
going to get over it. It’s going to be
fine. Don’t freak out. It’s like we
know, right? When people get the flu, we
know sometimes it lasts a short period
of time, the symptoms go away. Sometimes
it lasts a longer period of time and the
symptoms go away. But guess what? The
flu doesn’t kill you. If you live in a
modern country, you know, in a modern
world like the United States, you’re not
going to get killed by the flu, right?
There’s medicines, there’s protocols,
right? So, you just got to wait it out.
Like, you again, and if you can buy more
Bitcoin, great. That is the number one
best thing to do when your asset has the
flu is buy as much of it as you possibly
can because it’s on sale because other
people are selling it and you can be
accumulating it. But number one, don’t
check the price all the time. It just
drives you crazy. It’s like again the
gut punches even if the pats on the back
exceed the gut punches. The gut punches
hit harder and you feel them more. So
just stop checking the price unless
you’re in active accumulation mode in
which case check the price as much as
you can and buy as much as you can and
accumulate as much as you can and obsess
about how to get more Bitcoin. That’s a
fantastic thing to do at a time like
this. But if you’re not in active
accumulation mode, you don’t have any
way of buying more Bitcoin, just ignore
the price. It’s going to be fine. We’ll
get probably a couple more months of
this. It’ll be fine. And this is the
fifth time Bitcoin’s done it. And like
having the flu, you can go to the
doctor. They can diagnose you with the
flu and they’ll tell you, “Hey, in
somewhere between 2 and 10 days, you’re
going to be feeling fine again.” Guess
what? You just wait it out. It’s fine.
Or you take teraflu, which is like
buying more Bitcoin. You’re like, “Hey,
I can do something that’s going to
accelerate this and make it feel better.
Buy more Bitcoin. You can do that.” Uh,
but that nothing’s wrong with Bitcoin.
Everything’s fine with Bitcoin. Every
asset does this periodically due to a
whole variety of behavioral patterns. If
you want to know everything to know
about why assets do this and how humans
behave and how long it lasts and how low
it could go, James Czech, who goes by
checkmate, he’s got his, you know, $29 a
month subscription. I love it. It’s, you
know, two new newsletters a week. It
tells you exactly what people are doing
with Bitcoin, why they’re selling, why
they’re buying, who’s selling, who’s
buying. Of course, you don’t know
individual names, but you can see, is it
long-term holders? Is it short-term
holders? Is it people that own the
Bitcoin ETFs? is that people that own,
you know, Bitcoin and cold storage. You
can get a sense based on that. And James
Tekken gives you some, you know, really,
really good insights. Uh, again, he’s
like a weatherman or he’s like a doctor.
Let’s stick with the flu analogy. He’s
like a doctor who you’re not feeling
well and, you know, it’s like you go
visit the doctor twice a day and you’re
like, “Hey, is it still the flu? Is
something else wrong with me? Do I have
strep?” Like, and the doctor’s like,
“No, let’s take another flu test. It’s
just the flu. You’re just fine.
Everything’s on track. your symptoms are
exactly the what they expected to be and
your recovery process is going exactly
the way it’s expected. Like that’s what
James Czech does for you. He’s like a
doctor who can, you know, diagnose you
twice a day or in the case of James
Czech twice a week and say nothing’s
wrong with Bitcoin. Everything is
normal. Everything that’s happening
right now we’ve seen before.
Everything’s on track. This is normal.
Buy as much as you can. It’s all going
to be fine. So, um that’s how I cope.
you know, how do I cope with chop
consolidation that goes on for months? I
read James Czech’s newsletter twice a
week, and I’m like, great, everything’s
normal. Everything’s expected.
Everything’s happening exactly the way
you would expect it to happen because
this is the fifth time Bitcoin’s been in
a bare market. And then there’s a bunch
of times, dozens of times when Bitcoin’s
been down 20 or 30%. Bare markets below
where it’s touched more than 50% down
have only happened five times. This is
the fifth time. And the lowest it got
was down 52%. Which was from 126 down to
60,000. It was a 52% drop. And of
course, it was only below, you know, it
was only below like 64,000 for like a
matter of hours. Um, so the low the low
is more like whatever 64, 63, whatever.
But it did touch 60 like very
temporarily in a matter of minutes or
hours. And I mean it touched 60 for like
what, a second? Like a second. Uh but
anyway, uh so it’s just it’ll be fine.
Everything’s fine. Just time. Time fixes
everything in the world of Bitcoin. You
just wait it out. Time fixes everything.
When you have the flu, you just wait it
out. Eventually, you start feeling
better. And if you can buy more Bitcoin,
buy more Bitcoin because then you’ll
feel good about the fact of where we
are. Uh but anyway, that’s how you
survive it. You wait it out. You
subscribe to James Check if you need a
twice a week dose of exactly what’s
going on to help you understand where we
are, how long we’re going to be there,
how low it could go, you know,
probabilities of all that sort of stuff.
James Check is fantastic. If you want
the latest news on Bitcoin, the news
block from Natalie Budell is fantastic.
It’s a once a week uh substack, but she
also uh reads that once a week sub
substack on her podcast. So you get once
a week in the news, which again always
reinforces that a ton of positive things
are happening for Bitcoin worldwide.
It’s just in a slump right now on the
price, but everything else is going
fantastically well and eventually the
price will catch up to everything else
that’s going fantastically well. And
then of course I always listen to Jack
Mor’s uh his podcast every Monday night
because it’s just a really good view of
the macro, which means big picture uh
economy and the world and politics and
all that sort of stuff. So again, if you
need a ways to cope, the highest level
of what’s happening in the world is uh
is uh Jack Malers, although that’s less,
you know, he’s always talking about
Bitcoin, but he doesn’t necessarily
apply it exactly to Bitcoin. So if you
want to know like big picture macro,
what’s happening, Jack Malers is the
best. If you want to know the news items
that are affecting Bitcoin in a week,
Natalie Brunell is best. And if you want
that twice a week dose of the doctor
stepping in and saying, “Let’s take a
fresh look at Bitcoin.” you know, every
Monday and Thursday. It’s usually Monday
and Thursday. Every Monday and Thursday,
let’s take a fresh look at Bitcoin. Is
anything wrong with the patient? Does
the patient still have the flu? Yes.
Right now, how long will the patient
have the flu? How long can it last?
What’s the probability that we go below
60,000 even for a second ever again?
Which right now is James Czech says 60%
chance we’d ever touch 60 ever again.
you know, 40% chance we undercut it by,
I don’t know, like 1% 2%, you know, some
ridiculously small percent and likely
bounce immediately right back. Again, if
you want if you want all of that and the
reassurance that comes with that of just
the confidence that everything’s fine,
nothing’s wrong with Bitcoin, it’s
behaving exactly like it did the last
five uh you know, the last four bare
markets, we’re in the fifth bare market,
everything’s normal, everything’s on
track, it’s going to be fine. James
Check is the best place to get that. And
I’ve done multiple uh Facebook live
videos about how to read his updates and
how to interpret them and all of that.
So everything’s fine with Bitcoin. It’s
great. It’s gonna be fine. Buy more if
you can. Everybody’s going to regret
that they didn’t buy more Bitcoin right
now. I wish that someone had told me
that in the 2018 bare market, which was
my first bare market was 2018. My second
bare market was 2022. I wish somebody
had told me in 2018. Joel, everything’s
fine. Bitcoin’s amazing. Nothing’s wrong
with Bitcoin. You should buy as much
Bitcoin as you can right now at $4,000,
$5,000, $6,000. Did I? No. Because I
didn’t have somebody like me back then
saying, “Hey, Joel, everything’s been
fine with Bitcoin. Back then it was the
third bare market. Then the fourth was
in 2022. Then the fifth is right now.”
They could have said, “Hey Joel, look,
let me show you what Bitcoin did before.
We’ve been here. 2018, there’s nothing
wrong with Bitcoin. It’s just like 2014.
2018 is just like 2014. It’s fine. It’s
behaving exactly the same, except not as
bad. See, every bare market has been not
as bad as the one before. This bare
market is not nearly as bad as 2022,
which was not nearly as bad as 2018,
which was not nearly as bad as 2014,
which was not nearly as bad as 2012. So,
every bare market is less worse because
the asset is getting bigger and more
mature. But if I had somebody if I had
somebody back there in 2018 to tell me
this is normal, everything’s fine, I
would own way more Bitcoin. Now,
thankfully, I understand that. I
understood that in 2022, which meant I
was accumulating a ton of Bitcoin
between 16,000 and 30,000, like a ton
between 16,000 and 30,000 in 2022 and
the first half of 2023. I mean, I bought
Bitcoin at all prices, including 122 and
124. I bought Bitcoin at all prices. But
if I had somebody back then um in 2018,
I would have bought a ton of Bitcoin
between 4,000 and 8,000,
way more than I did. But instead, I had
to buy that same Bitcoin for way higher
prices, meaning I owned a lot less
Bitcoin per dollar back in 2022. Uh
because then I understood it. And guess
what? You know what you’re going to do?
Everybody watching this video is going
to buy a bunch of Bitcoin in the next
Bitcoin bare market. See, you’re too
scared to buy it in this Bitcoin bare
market because it’s your first Bitcoin
bare market. But in the next Bitcoin
bare market, you’re going to buy a ton
of Bitcoin. problem is you’re going to
be buying a ton of Bitcoin in the next
bare market between 180,000 and 240,000
or whatever the next bare market is. You
know, Bitcoin goes to, I don’t know, 350
and then drops down to 240 or something
like that. I don’t know. But the short
take is the next bare market, you’re
going to be buying a ton of Bitcoin
that’s way more expensive than today’s
Bitcoin because the only reason you’re
not buying a ton more Bitcoin today is
because this is your first bare market.
If it was your second, third, fourth
bare market, you’d be in hardcore
accumulation mode because you would know
Bitcoin always bounces back and you’d
have felt this before and you’d have
seen this movie before and you’d think,
I get it. This is all normal. I’ve seen
it. I’ve seen that. I’ve seen it. It’s
like betting on the probability that
you’re going to recover from the flu.
Right? So, if you got the flu and
somebody spun up Poly Market and Kelsey
about the probability that you’re going
to recover from the flu and you’ve had
the flu five times before, you’d get on
there and you’d bet that you’re going to
recover. Guess what? Because you know
how it feels. You’re going to feel bad.
You’re going to get aches and pains and
cramps and you’re going to feel like not
doing anything and you’re going to sleep
a ton and you might throw up some and
you might feel nauseated. But guess
what? You’re going to be fine. You’re
going to recover and you can make a ton
of money by betting on that because
you’ve been there before. But if you’ve
never had the flu and you don’t know
what it is and it’s your first
experience, yeah, you’re like, “Hey, I
don’t know what I have and this is scary
and am I going to recover and is
everything going to be okay?” But once
it’s not your first bare market, this is
my my third bare market. It’s Bitcoin’s
fifth bare market. It’s my third. I
lived through 2018. I lived through
2022. Here we are in 2026.
It’s not automatically every four years,
but it just cycle because the first bare
market was 2012. Uh then it was 2014,
but so far it’s been even numbered
years. Although 2025 was a down year. It
wasn’t the bare market down year, but
the the bare market started in 2025. So
it doesn’t exactly line up, but
obviously the low point so far was in
2026. So anyway, you’ll be fine. Bitcoin
is fine. Buy as much as you can. Hold on
to it for as long as conceivably
possible. Same advice as always. You
will wish you had bought way more
Bitcoin in this bare market. You will
wish wish that you could rewind time to
exactly right now and buy way more
Bitcoin right now at whatever it’s not
on my watch anymore. $68,000 or whatever
the price of Bitcoin is right now. You
will wish you could rewind time in the
future to right now and buy way more
Bitcoin. Buy as much as you can. Hold on
to it for as long as conceivably
possible. That advice has never been
wrong. has never been bad advice in the
long term with Bitcoin. We’ve been at
this 17 years. Bitcoin is 17 years old.
We’ve been at it 17 years. That advice
has never failed anyone who bought
Bitcoin and held on to it. Have a great
one. Buy more Bitcoin. You’ll be fine.
Bitcoin’s got the flu. It’ll recover.
This is all normal. Nothing’s wrong with
Bitcoin. Worldwide adoption is the
strongest it’s ever been for Bitcoin
right now. Ever. The price will reflect
that. It’s just a matter of time.