Will there be ONE LAST LEG DOWN before this bear market ends?

Will there be one last leg down before this Bitcoin bare market ends? The answer is we don’t know. But we can speculate on that based on history. Uh so first of all, Bitcoin is in a bare market. A bare market is a down market because bears slash with their paws and claws downward as opposed to a bull market which is an up market because bulls attack by throwing their horns up into the air. That’s the way you remember. Bitcoin’s in its fifth bare market. Every bare market so far has had a draw down in price, meaning a price drop from the all-time high of more than 50%. Every bare market, the percentage draw down has been getting less. So, there’s never been a bare market out of the five that we’ve had, which was 2014, 2018, 2022. Um, actually, the first was 2012. So, 2012, 2014, uh 2018, 2022, and now 2026. None of those bare markets has had a draw down that was uh more than the one before it. Uh, this draw down has has been 54%. From 126,000 down to 54,000 um, sorry, 58,000. Let me say that again. From 126,000 down to 58,000 is a 54% drop. Uh, the previous draw downs were all larger than that. In successive stair steps, the farther you go back, the bigger the draw down. So, for this one, 54% feels about right um, based on historical averages and all that sort of stuff. Now, how long will this one last? Well, the people who think it’s going to last uh the longest are predicting October 4, which is 364 days from the all-time high, and that is 54 days away. So, do we have to wait another 54 days? Will there be another draw down? We don’t know. Um, but it feels like as low as we’ve been before, feels in my opinion about like 2022, which is, you know, the lowest it needs to go to sort of set a low for this cycle. Also, there’s nothing about the past that automatically predicts the future. For example, the first Bitcoin bare market, uh, the price draw in was 94% equivalent to Amazon after the.com bust. Uh, Amazon, the stock dropped by literally 54%. There was another one, I forget which one of the magnificent seven stocks that I believe also had a 94% price drop in their first big bare market. So, this is not, you know, unheard of. Uh obviously Amazon is one of the largest companies in the world and their first big price drop was 94%. So in that price drop if you had decided the next time the price drops 94% I’m going to buy a bunch you never would have bought any Bitcoin because the next time it only dropped 93%. Probably because everybody was thinking last time it dropped 94%. That that means I’m gonna frontr run all the people that think it’s going to drop 94% by buying at 93%. Regardless it only went down 93%. Now, the next time if you said, “Okay, it dropped 94%, now 93%. I’m going to buy it when it drops 92%.” Well, you would never have bought Bitcoin because it never dropped 92 or 90 or 85. The biggest drop after those first two bare markets was 84%. And then again, same in the 2022 bare market after the price shot up in 2021, the price dropped by 77%. But again, if you were waiting for 78 or 80 or 82, you were not going to buy any Bitcoin. So anytime you expect a Bitcoin bare market to to behave exactly like the last one, you typically get left behind. Now the one thing you can be certain of on social media is that everybody who is doing their predictions is going to be wrong. In a bull market, meaning an up market, everybody is predicting a price that is higher than the price that it will ultimately go. Now you again, you don’t know what that price is. You just know at the very end of it when the price is as high as it’s going to go based on everybody’s projections, everybody on social media up to that point will have been predicting a higher price. Generally, the same is true in a downturn. In a Bitcoin bare market, you can be virtually guaranteed that everybody will be predicting a price that is lower than the ultimate lowest it ever goes. So, since I lived through and I was really front row seat in the 2022 bare market, literally I was watching the market multiple hours per day, every single piece of Bitcoin news, buying every chance I got. Uh, in the 2022 bare market, I remember distinctly that all the people on social media thought the price would drop to 13,800 or 12,800 or 10,800. They all seem to have like 800. They all seem to pick that, but it was like 10, 12 or 13,800. And they were all wrong because the lowest price ever went was 15,500. So again, all those people either never bought Bitcoin or they bought it at a substantially higher price after it rebounded. It was clear that they were getting left behind and you know, they were stuck buying at a lot higher price than they could have. Um well, the same will be true here. Most of the voices on social media, including comments and replies to my own videos, are saying 58,000 was not the bottom. it’s going to 45 or it’s going to 50 or it’s going to 30 or it’s going to whatever. If you if you average them all out, they’re probably going to say 40,000. Now, I don’t think the price is going to 40,000. First of all, that’s only 18,000 less than than 58. But I don’t think it’s going there. And it it feels about right where if the chorus is, you know, saying 10,000, it bottoms at 155. If the chorus is saying 40, it bottoms at 58. It just, again, history does not repeat, but it does rhyme. Uh, and that just feels about right. Now, the big question about whether or not there’s one last leg down in this Bitcoin bare market is there would have to be a catalyst. You don’t get one last leg down for no reason. People don’t just suddenly sell off an asset for literally no reason. Now, we talked about price pain and time pain. Price pain February 5th of um of this year where the price suddenly dropped after dropping from 126 down to uh 100 and then down to 80. It dropped abruptly down to 60,000 which freaked a lot of people out, scared a lot of people out of the market. As we’ve talked about numerous times, markets will either scare you out or they will wear you out. Well, the price pain capitulation is where the market tries to scare you out. And then the time pain capitulation is when the market tries to wear you out because after the price pain, you got to wait months on end while the price grinds sideways or somewhat lower. Sometimes it sets a new low, sometimes it doesn’t. This time it did set a new low at 58,000 rather than 60,000. So we had 60,000 back on February 5th. Then we got 59,000 in early June of this year. And then we got 58,000 in late June of this year. But again, all of those numbers 58, 59, 60 are all basically the same number. They’re all effectively rounding errors uh from each other. So do we get one more last leg down? Well, a lot of people were predicting that strategy, the company formerly known as Micro Strategy, headed by Michael Sailor with the ticker symbol MSTR, a lot of people were predicting that strategy would trigger the last leg down. And in some ways, it kind of did because uh about a month ago, they sold 32 Bitcoin after many years of only accumulating Bitcoin. They told the market they were going to try to inoculate the market against sales to give themselves more flexibility because inclusion in the standard NP’s 500, the S&P 500 requires them when they have a balance sheet that large to prove that they are bu willing to buy and sell the asset because if a company is in the S&P 500 and they have a massive balance sheet like that, but they are never ever willing to sell anything on the balance sheet, then the S&P 500 credit rating agency does not give them credit for having a balance sheet that large because they say, “What’s the point of having a balance sheet that long large large if you will never sell it? You have an asset that you’re committed to never sell. Well, then it’s not worth anything.” So, they sold 32 Bitcoin and told the market they were going to sell 32 Bitcoin. And then they did. And then the market freaked out. They’re like, “Oh no, the biggest buyer of Bitcoin in history is suddenly a seller. They must be in trouble.” Of course, they were not in trouble. they had hundreds of millions of dollars on their balance sheet in US dollars to pay their uh debt and uh dividend payments and debt covenants and whatever else they’ve got. Um so they were not in trouble. But subsequently a couple weeks later they sold 3,500 Bitcoin. They sold more than 10 times as much as that initial sort of immunize the market transaction. Well, the immuniz market transaction clearly had worked because after triggering a drop down to 58,000, the sale of 3,500 Bitcoin for more than, you know, 10 times the Bitcoin for 10 times the dollars, uh, had almost no effect on the market and the market actually went up. The price of Bitcoin increased versus decreased even with Michael Sailor and his company Strategy being a net seller last week of Bitcoin as opposed to a net buyer. Now, we will find out tomorrow morning what they did this week because every Monday morning, they announced what they did the previous week. So, this past Monday, six days ago, they sold 3,500 Bitcoin. We’re going to find out tomorrow what they actually did. Did they buy Bitcoin? Did they sell Bitcoin? Did they retire, you know, some of their debt by raising common equity and using it for, you know, to to recite retire some of their bonds? I don’t know. We’re going to find out tomorrow morning. But anyway, since that scare, which was illfounded, I mean, I recorded a video called the number one reason Bitcoin is down is a nothing burger. That video got more than 60,000 views. And it was a nothing burger, just like I predicted because they were never in trouble. They always had years of runway. I mean, they were just never in trouble. But people don’t understand that and they didn’t want to do the work to find out. So now that that’s behind us, they’re sitting on more than $2.5 billion of cash right now in addition to $50 billion of Bitcoin. So they’ve got like years and years of runway. They’ve got decades, like multiple decades of runway that they can pay their interest and dividends and all of that. So a lot of people were predicting sort of maybe that was uh the trigger of the bottom would be strategy. Strategy would have an issue. They would have to sell. You know, they would be in trouble. I never believed that was the case, but you know, sometimes perception is reality. But it was enough to trigger the drop down to 58,000 instead of the bottom being 60,000, which again is a basically a rounding error. Uh but now that that’s out of the way, I really fail to see what could trigger a drop lower. Um there’s currently a dispute over the Bitcoin, uh an aspect of the Bitcoin protocol, uh that’s called BIP 110. Um there are some things that could happen with that. none of them that would have any long-term effect on Bitcoin, but the, you know, that squabble could freak the market out in various ways that I won’t go into detail here. Um, but that’s over in 28 days anyway. So, you know, whether we have to wait 84 days uh for all the people who think, you know, Bitcoin bare markets automatically last 364 days because someone told them that on social media, or whether we have to wait 28 days for these BIP 110 people to get out of the way, it’s basically a failed stupid. Anyway, this happens in Bitcoin one now and then that somebody uh you know people get the Messiah complex and then they’re suddenly certain that they want to change Bitcoin in some way and Bitcoin is built to not be changeable by a small number of people. That’s kind of the whole point. So, um anyway, there could be some things related to that that trigger sort of a, you know, temporary panic. Uh and if that happens, I will do a video about what they are, but I think it’s extremely unlikely. And you know, at any given time, there’s a million different extremely unlikely things that could happen. And I only do videos on the ones that have any possibility of reasonable possibility whatsoever. And I’m just not even going to talk about what could happen in the VIP 110 world because it’s stupid. And you know, I don’t see, you know, the hash the hash power they have is less than 1% and the probability it will activate is less than onetenth of 1%. And even if it does, who cares? Anyway, it’s a nothing burger. Another nothing burger just like I predicted with strategy. So, uh, anyway, we don’t know if there will be one last leg down. If it if there is, it needs a trigger. I don’t see that trigger. Um, it’s not going to be strategy. I don’t know what would trigger one last leg down in price. That doesn’t mean it can’t happen. It’s just I can’t I don’t envision what that would be. And it feels like everything is on track uh for the most recent leg down to 58,000 to be the price paying capitulation. And you know, we got through the month of July with an initial drop down to 58,000. Sorry, 59. So, we got through the month of June. I guess it was last month. We got through the month of June with an initial D price drop down to 50 uh uh 59,000 and then later in the month it drop down to 58,000 and now we’re back up in the you know mid60,000 mid to low 60,000s. It feels like that was the bottom. I mean nobody knows but again the question that nobody can answer on all these people on social media is why do you think it’s going to go go below 58,000? They don’t have an answer. Like none of them have an answer. They’re just positive it will. but they don’t have any good answer as to what the catalyst will be or why that will happen. And then why do they think the bottom’s going to be in early October instead of already happened or will happen this month? And again, you know, because their calendar told them so. Well, in what rational universe do humans behave on a calendar when it comes to, you know, financial asset investing? They just don’t. And it’s dumb to think that they do. So, I would say, you know, not that my probabilities are any better than anybody else’s, but I would say there is a 70% chance there will not be another leg down. Meaning, I think there’s a 70% chance that 58,000 was the bottom. Uh, technically, it was 57,700 or 57,800. It was just below 58,000, but for round numbers, it was closer to 58 than, you know, 57 and a half. It was closer to 58, so I’m going to just use 58. So, I think there’s a 70% chance that 58,000 was the bottom back in June, uh, last month. And I think there’s a 30% chance that we undercut that price, you know, ever so slightly. I don’t know what that is. Maybe it’s 57 instead of 58. Maybe it’s 56 instead of 58. Maybe it’s lower. I don’t know. But again, I just don’t see the catalyst that would drag the price down. And I see a million things that could push the price up. So, uh, use your best judgment. If you’re not sure what to do, you can always dollar cost average DCA, which is where you buy the same amount of Bitcoin every day or every week. And then you don’t have to worry about if the price hit a bottom or didn’t hit a bottom because you’re buying no matter what. As James check, James Czech likes to say, just buy the whole bottom. Buy all of it. You know, buy for multiple months and then you don’t have to worry about where the bottom was because you bought it at some point. And you know, you can dollar cost average. Your your returns are typically a bit lower if you do that, which is why I don’t recommend it. Uh, if it were me and I had US dollars that had not already been con converted to Bitcoin, I would smash buy Bitcoin right now regardless of the price. I would not try to time it. I would not wait. If I had any US dollars that were not already Bitcoin, I would just buy Bitcoin with them right now because much better to buy it at, you know, today’s price with a 70% probability that’s the bottom uh or that we already saw the bottom as opposed to a 30% chance that I wait for something lower, which 70% chance won’t happen. any of it if it does will probably be barely below the price we already saw. So what’s the point? So if I had US dollars, I’d convert them to Bitcoin right now. And that’s what I’ve already done with all the US dollars I have, which is why I’m 100% Bitcoin. So let me know if you have questions. is always here to serve.