Bitcoin @ $75,000: HIGHER or LOWER from here?

Bitcoin at $75,000. Do we go up or down from here? The short take is I don’t know. Michael Saylor doesn’t know. Lyn Alden doesn’t doesn’t know. Jack Mallers doesn’t know. Nobody knows. In fact, Michael Saylor has bought tens of billions of dollars of Bitcoin at prices higher than today’s price over the last 6 to 12 months. So, if he knew which way the price was going to go, he would not buy Bitcoin at current prices. He would wait if it’s going down or he would have waited and not bought all the Bitcoin he bought at 112 and 124 and 116 and 92 and all the prices he bought. So, nobody knows. But, let’s talk about the thesis behind each probability. So, first of all, Bitcoin’s low for this cycle, this 4-year cycle, even though a lot of people don’t think 4-year cycles are a thing, it just so happens that the lows have been um 2012, 2014. Obviously, that’s 2 years, not 4 years, but 2014, 2018, and 2022, and 2026 so far. And those are 4 years apart for what it’s worth, even if that’s not a formal cycle. So, uh What is Where are we right now? So, the low was on February 5th at 60,000. So, the first question is do we revisit that 60,000? Nobody knows. And if so, how low do we go? And what is the thesis for going higher and staying higher versus going lower? Well, let’s go for the lower side first. Uh the thesis for going lower is Bitcoin is currently in what’s called a bear flag. You can look it up on ChatGPT, Google, whatever you want, a bear flag. A bear flag is when an asset has been taking, you know, big jumps down like the big drop down in November and the second big drop down in February. And then the asset is slowly grinding higher. So, over the last 3 months plus, from February, April, I guess it was February, I guess it’s only been 2 months. But anyway, a little more, 2 and 1/2, whatever it is. Uh since February 5th, Bitcoin has been grinding slowly higher. A lot of volatility, but slowly higher. So, typically a bear flag a bull flag is when an asset is jumping higher higher higher and then is grinding slowly down, which typically means it’s going to jump higher again cuz that’s what it’s been doing. A bear flag is when an asset’s been jumping lower significantly and it can’t find a way to do more than just grind slowly higher when it plateaus, which is kind of what’s happening right now. Now, the problem is you don’t know is this, you know, the final was February 5th the final capitulation and we’re going to slowly grind higher and then suddenly jump higher or you know, is this setting up just like between November and February the slow grind higher followed by another big drop and then that’s the final big drop. The short take is nobody knows. But, you can look up bear flags. Of course, the problem with bear flags is they only happen some of the time. So, that’s like me saying, well, I can predict exactly what a what’s going to happen on a coin toss. You got a 50% chance of up versus down. It’s like, well, that’s not helpful. Well, so it’s same with the bear flag. It’s like, well, a bear flag often resolves to the downside, but it also often doesn’t resolve to the downside, so that’s not super helpful. But, um, people like James Check would say, “Look, historically, like in 2022, everybody thought the bottom was in and then FTX blew up and nobody thought FTX was going to blow up and so the market got dragged lower as a result of FTX than really anybody thought was possible.” So, could the same thing happen here? Yes. Is it likely to happen? Maybe not, but it could and everybody just kind of has to keep that in mind. Okay. So, if we go lower, the lowest price that James Check generally ever talks about is like 54,000 uh, to 59,000. He’s like, “Look, if we undercut 60, it’s probably not by much. If we undercut 60, you know, we we really historically are not going to go more than 5 or 10% below 60,000, which puts us, you know, in the 54 to, you know, Well, he the numbers he uses are 54 to 59, but again, his view Sorry for the geese here. There’s people everywhere, there’s geese everywhere. There they go. Um All right, so which uh you know, James Check says, “Look, if we do an one undercut, first of all, we might never undercut the current price. I mean, we could just climb from here. Second, if we do, we’re high enough away from 60,000 that we could have a big plunge in price by from $75,000 a a big 10% crash is only 7,500 on 75,000, meaning you could have a big crash down to 67,500, and that would be a 10% correction from here, but it still doesn’t get you down to 60,000. So, is there going to be another big price correction? Nobody knows. If there is, it could be somewhere between here and 60,000, meaning we don’t set a new low. And if it does undercut 60,000, again, you know, people online who are like, “Oh, it could go to 40. It could go to 45.” James Check says, “Look, Bitcoin has not ver has not um what do you call it? Bitcoin has not uh been that far from the averages since 2011. So, yeah, is it possible that Bitcoin drops an amount comparable to the most it’s ever dropped since 2011? Yeah, that is possible, but it’s extraordinarily unlikely. It’s extraordinarily unlikely that we’re going to see numbers from a percentage um you know, when with uh we’ve talked about markets being mean reverting, meaning they come back to the averages. Uh we have not been that far from the averages since 2011. So, uh you know, the 2018 bear market was way worse, the 2022 bear market was way worse. Uh the 2014 bear market was way worse. So, really, really, 2016 2026, you think we’re going to set record you know, record deviations. That’s the word I was looking for. Uh deviations from the mean uh or the median. It’s like that’s just extremely unlikely. But anyway, so I don’t think anybody is expecting a number, you know, it to get that low. But anyway, James Check says, “Look, it could undercut 60, and if it does, you know, you’re looking at mid-to-high 50s, which is not much of an undercut. It’s also not a high probability, but it could happen.” Okay, so if the bear flag resolves to the downside, probably what that looks like is one last leg down, and then that’s the end of the bear market, and we go up from there. And it’s as simple as that. Now, I would not wait for that because the probability that will happen is not high. The probability that you’re going to guess how low the price is going to go is 0%, and the likelihood that you’re going to screw it up and miss out and not buy the Bitcoin is just way higher. So, I’m waiting for a big tax refund from multiple years ago for an amended tax thing, and it could hit any day, like any day I’ve got, you know, tens of thousands of dollars of a tax refund that could hit at any moment. And guess what? I’m going to buy Bitcoin with it whenever it shows up because I’m not going to wait for a leg down cuz I don’t know. Nobody knows. There’s just no way of predicting that. So anyway, uh so that’s the thesis for a leg down. Okay, on the upside, a bunch of very positive things are happening with Bitcoin that would say, “Hey, rather than a bear flag that will resolve downward one last time, we’re probably going to just climb upward.” And let me list some of those things. One, Square just turned on Bitcoin payments for 4 million payment terminals around the United States. They’re still rolling that out through the course of the next month or so. So, they’re not turned on all, you know, nationwide yet. They’re doing it in phases. But that’s a big deal. You’ll be able to use Bitcoin at 4 million different places to pay for anything around the United States. Second, Goldman Sachs, uh JP Morgan, uh are all rolling out major Bitcoin products and planning to market those to their customers. That’s a big deal, like a really big deal. So, the the last of the major financial institutions uh institutions that were holdouts are coming online including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley who just launched their own Bitcoin exchange. Sorry, alarm went off. Yeah, so Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan and um Goldman Sachs are all launching Bitcoin products or have recently launched Bitcoin products. Like that’s that’s a huge amount of demand that is represented by their customers. Uh in addition to all that you’ve got uh you know, I think it was today Pakistan re-legalized Bitcoin after initially making it sort of regulatorily difficult. They turned it back on. Pakistan’s a huge country sitting next to India. Like, you know, a lot of people there. Um next up you’ve got um the Clarity Act which a lot of people on Wall Street even with Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs and you know, Fidelity and BlackRock and all of these people announcing or already launching Bitcoin products uh a lot of Wall Street is still sitting on the sidelines waiting for Congress to act and put their official stamp of approval on digital assets and cryptocurrencies specifically. That should happen over the next month or so. So, there’s a lot of tailwinds meaning there’s a lot of things in the background pushing Bitcoin’s price higher. Uh and as a result, I would certainly not wait for a price correction. So, if somebody said, “Okay, what is the probability what is the probability that we hit 90,000 versus we hit 60,000?” Meaning, what is the probability that we hit 90,000 before we hit 60,000 as opposed to hitting 60,000 again before we hit 90,000 on our way higher? I would say, you know, I would bet to the upside at somewhere between probably 60 and 70%. Meaning, the odds are 60/40 that we never revisit 60,000. Maybe 70/30, as high as 70/30, more than two to one, that we never revisit 60,000 ever again. Uh but again, I don’t know. Nobody knows. I mean, if anybody knew, they would be a billionaire overnight cuz they would borrow insane amounts of money and bet that it would go that way. Which you can actually do on Kelshi and Polymarket right now. You can bet on where the price of Bitcoin will be at various points in the future. And all sorts of people are losing all sorts of money attempting to guess something that is unknowable. Just like they do on all prediction markets. So, we don’t know. But, I would say somewhere between 60 and 70% chance we hit 90,000 and never visit 60,000 again. But, that does leave it, you know, 30-40% chance that we revisit 60,000 and you know, maybe we touch 60,000, maybe we touch 59, 58. I don’t know. Nobody knows. Um but, I’m feeling great about Bitcoin because I spend probably between four and five hours per day studying everything related to Bitcoin, every newsfeed on Twitter, every post on Facebook, you know, reading research reports, listening to podcast. Literally, I spend probably between four and five hours per day following everything happening in the world of Bitcoin. And it’s basically 100% positive. In fact, off the top of my head, I cannot think of a single negative news story related to Bitcoin. Like, everything is trending in the right direction other than the price, which is trending in the right direction, but very slowly, climbing from 60,000 to 75,000 over the last, you know, two-plus months. Uh but, with a lot of chop in there. I mean, if you’ve been along for the ride, sure, every low has been higher than the last low, and every high has been higher than the last high, but man, there’s a lot of chop. Uh you know, it looks like somebody put a, you know, chop chop chop, and then angled it slightly upward, but man, what a ridiculous amount of chop. Uh so, I’m feeling great about Bitcoin. If I had money to invest in Bitcoin, I would. Um if the price does go through a correction, I will use Bitcoin-backed loans to buy if the price ever goes below 60,000. I will use Bitcoin back-to-loans to buy it extremely heavily discounted Bitcoin down there, but I don’t think it will. But, that’s what I’ll do if it happens, but I’m not going to spend my money on Bitcoin back-to-loans at current prices cuz 75,000 I’m I’m just not going to use leverage at 75,000. Um that right now. I mean, I think it’s going higher and if I had money that was mine, I’d put it in. Uh but, all the money that I could possibly have in Bitcoin already is in Bitcoin. I don’t have any stocks or bonds or precious metals or artwork or real estate. I got nothing that could be in Bitcoin that’s not already in Bitcoin. It’s all in Bitcoin. I’m 100% Bitcoin. 100% of my liquid assets are in Bitcoin. So, uh I feel great about Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s in a great place doing exactly what it’s supposed to do and it’s only a matter of time till the flight price reflects that. And who knows? Maybe the price already is reflecting that. Maybe the current price is just the the slow climb higher that will be followed by a fast climb higher. And if so, great. It’s just, you know, I want to get that 60,000 so far in the rearview mirror that nobody’s even talking about it anymore. Uh and we’re not there yet. Uh but, we will get there. It’s only a matter of time. So, I got a chance we go So, somewhere between 60 and 70% chance we go up rather than down. But, that leaves a 30% or so chance we go down before we go up. Nobody knows. But, Bitcoin will be the best performing asset in the world just like it always is over the coming years. It’s just a matter of time. Thanks, everyone.