JAMES CHECK says the bitcoin BEAR MARKET is OVER!

James Czech says the Bitcoin bare market is over. So in the update right now, I’m going to walk through his guide where he says, “Did we slay the bear?” His conclusion is yes, and I’m going to read some highlights of it. Now, James Czech is an analyst and he doesn’t officially publish uh bare market um uh obituaries until a couple months after they end, basically when it’s blatantly to everyone. But I would say that this post, did we slay the bear? is the closest thing you’re going to ever get to an analyst saying, “Uh, hey, we’ve slayed the bear. The bare market’s over.” So, I’m going to read you some highlights. I have been following James Czech for two years probably now, and all through the last bull market, all through this bare market, and this is about as definitive as he ever gets on anything, while still leaving the the one in a thousand chance open that he’s wrong. Okay, so let’s walk through it. Did we slay the bear? This rally has has left Bitcoin bears in a state of disbelief. blasting through all near-term resistance levels. Uh the question is, has spot demand, meaning like exchange demand, followed through to confirm the bullish transition? His conclusion from the update is yes, it has. And I posted uh uh excerpts from this update yesterday. Okay, so here’s his TLDDR, which is publicly available. You can actually see the TLDDR on his website without even a subscription. He says, “Did we just slay the bear? I’ll be honest, I’m struggling to find data that point data points that suggest we haven’t. Across almost every metric, this rally has the hallmarks of a bare market slang event. Again, that is just about as, you know, definitive as you’re ever going to get from James Czech. It says, “Bitcoin sliced through the first three lines of bare defense.” Remember, bare markets are down markets. Bears slash with their claws down. Bear means down market for all financial markets. uh bull market. Bulls uh attack with their horns going up. So a bull market is an up market or an optimistic market. Uh that is terminology that is used in all all financial markets, not just Bitcoin. Okay. Bitcoin sliced through the first three lines of bare defense. Uh being the short-term uh short-term holder cost basis at 67,000, the 200 day moving average at 69,000, and the true market mean at 77,000. The last line of defense is the 50week moving average at 82,000 which aligns with the May high. However, by the time we get there, the bears do have to ask themselves what went wrong. Okay, spot demand appears to have followed through. This wasn’t just a short squeeze, although that continues. Although that contributed to the initial move, spot volume is up 150%. Exchange traded funds, ETFs saw 1 billion in inflows in the days before it kicked off. So, the ETFs actually saw an increase before the bull market kicked off on uh August 19 and the ETF volumes hit 22 uh 22 billion per week, a level typically of explosive up days in the 2025 bull market. So, first of all, uh let me talk about spot demand. Spot demand is people uh buying and selling in the spot market, which is basically day-to-day whatever all the time. uh as opposed to futures and options and puts and calls and perpetual futures and all of those markets. So sometimes you get a swing in a price that is only really supported by for example a a short squeeze uh which are people that shorted Bitcoin and then the price moved up which means they have to cover their shorts. That’s not what happened this time. What happened this time is all of this uh uptrend in the price of Bitcoin has been validated by spot demand. meaning there’s a huge amount of trading activity buying and selling at these prices, not just futures and options and puts and calls and perpetual futures and all that. Okay. So then he goes on to say overall uh his overall thesis, let me get a drink. Overall thesis, for the last 10 months, we have documented the bearish price descent, the expected profile of capitulation events and attempted to bound the problem of where and when the bare market was likely to find its end. I’m of the view that this thesis has more or less played out now, meaning the bare market thesis is done. It’s played out. It’s, you know, etc. Time will tell and bulls usually start off very slowly. There will be gut checks, corrections, and dips. However, I think the investor sentiment has now shifted from sell the rip into buy the dip, default, meaning the default behavior is we’re going up, not down. Welcome to the first days of spring. We have earned it according to James Czech. Okay, so the rally is ripping. Uh, some other highlights. He says, “Lightstage bare markets usually end with a period of utterly boring sideways nothingness that follows the time pain capitulation event. Those quiet periods are a sign that we have hit seller exhaustion and are a precursor to a macro scale regime shift.” Remember I did the video called uh Bitcoin will not stay at $64,000. So exactly what James Chuck is talking about of just sideways nothingness. We’ve had that especially very recently where the price of Bitcoin around between 62 and 64,000. I mean it was like a stable coin. I mean [laughter] it was just the price stayed at I think 63,000 for just like I mean it was just like on like it was just wasn’t moving at all and those typically you know are in the very final stages of a bare market. It says bearish traders leverage levered up heavily on the short side anticipating super obvious next leg lower and their guaranteed road to riches with a cycle bottom in Q4. And obviously all those people got completely wiped out with the largest liquidation event in Bitcoin history. Meaning a gazillion people were betting that it was going to go down and instead the price went up and they got liquidated. Their portfolios got liquidated because they were using leverage. He says, “I consider the 50week moving average at 82,000 to be the last line of defense for the bears. And we are like nudging. Last night we were just nudging, nudging, nudging 82,000.” Uh James Czech says, “In the immediate term, this rally was so powerful that it completely” Then he goes into some technical stuff. Uh expectations is that we shouldn’t be surprised to see a week or so of consolidation and possibly a correction to digest the move. Just like we’ve talked about in numerous videos, anytime there’s a big move in Bitcoin up or down, it takes time to digest it. Just like a pig in a python, it just takes time. All right, other highlights. Uh, the market chops sideways for weeks or so around 77,000. He says, if the market chops sideways for a week or so around 77,000, that would be a bull flag and an extremely positive sign that continuation is incoming. If the market needs to correct lower, I would be looking to see the 200 day moving average at $69,000 act as support, meaning he doesn’t see us going below $69,000. And I think it will provide that support. I believe we have now entered a regime where dips will now be bought. All right, moving on. I’m only reading you very very high highlighted highlights of of this update. Uh, if you want the full update, pay $29 a month and you can get it. Or I posted a lot more detailed excerpts yesterday. Uh, people level up the most near market tops and bottoms because it feels safe to do so after multiple consecutive months of price trending in that direction, which is what happened. A bunch of people at the very bottom near 60,000 went short. meaning they betted Bitcoin was going down to 45 and then they got their faces ripped off when Bitcoin did exactly what I predicted it would, which was go up instead of down. Uh the bears wanted their Q4 low at $45,000 and they did not get it. The bulls wanted higher prices and an end to the Bitcoin winter and we got it. That’s what we got. All right. The ETFs had their largest weekly inflows of 1.8 billion since the October all-time high. So, in the last week, Bitcoin uh the exchange traded fund just had more inflows than any time other than October of last year at the all-time high price. Um that there were positive inflows in the three days leading up to August 19 is a very good sign. So, he’s saying, look, the inflows in the Bitcoin ETFs did not start because the market was going up. They started before the price went up. Meaning, the demand already was there pushing the price up. It was not just reflexive action to price goes up and people get, you know, trigger happy and start buying. Um, spot demand was increasing right as seller exhaustion reached its peak. At some stage, there’s just no more sellers left, figuratively speaking. And the result is that the price must gap higher to find the next batch of them. Gap meaning moving very quickly from one price level to the next. ETF trade volume also had a stellar week, blasting to$22 billion dollars for the week, which is a level surpassed only during the highest energy rallies of the 2024 and 2025 bull market. So great demand for the Bitcoin ETFs. Okay, other highlights. Tons of fearful capit capitulation pressure was met by an equal and opposite but much more resilient force of patient accumulation. Meaning as the price was down near the lows of $60,000 again the the demand pressure ultimately exhausted those sellers and uh which is how all bare markets stand for all financial assets. Sellers became exhausted, demand kept chugging away and price ultimately had to gap higher to find more supply. Um this is one of my favorite I I love the way James check uh changed this stuff together. He says, uh, we watched the price paying capitulation in Febru February. Sorry, let me start over. We watched the price pain capitulation in February. We watched the time paying capitulation in June and July. And now we’re watching the bears in pain transition back into a bullish structure. So I I love that you first you get the price pain capitulation, then you get the time pain capitulation, then you get the bears in pain. Uh, which is exactly what we’re experiencing right now. and I love it. So, concluding thoughts. If you’re reading this, it means you have a far higher conviction than the average person. The vast majority of people did not make it through a Bitcoin winter and sell their holdings for some reason or another, typically near the bottom. It takes grit and determination to press on and especially to accumulate when it seems nobody else wants to. Those decisions have been rewarded. Keep in mind, bull markets tend to start slow, and dips will trigger a ton of PTSD from folks who rushed in to chase the market higher. Many of them will cook their portfolios again by going leveraged long too late or by panic selling the next dip. And then he closes by saying, “Of course, don’t do that.” And welcome to the first days of spring. We have earned it. So there you go. This update titled, “Did we slay the bears?” is about the most uh definitive case that you’re ever going to hear um James Czech make that the Bitcoin bare market is over until probably weeks or months from now when he publishes his bare market obituary. But he only publishes those like so far in a rears that it’s blatantly obvious to everyone that the bare market is over. So this is about a, you know, 99 out of 100%, you know, or whatever chance that this bare market’s over. Does it mean we can’t see dips? No, we can still see dips. It just means that the momentum is on our back. The general trend is upward. The dips will be bought and that it is extremely unlikely we ever see a price, you know, $60,000 or below. Frankly, it’s extremely unlikely we even see the low 60s. Um, again, according to James Czech, if if we see a dip, it’s probably not going below 67, 69. You know, that’s sort of the the floor in the the mind of James Czech right now. So, exciting times ahead. If you have not bought all the Bitcoin you were planning to buy, now would be a great time to do that. Um, I think for the next three plus years, we’ll have mostly hundreds of percentage points of gain in the future. And if you want to be part of that, now is the time to buy more Bitcoin. Uh, it’s literally that simple. Buy as much Bitcoin as you can, hold on to it for as long as conceivably possible. And, uh, if you have more than $10,000 of Bitcoin on an exchange like River or Coinbase or something, then go to bitkey.world world. Bit Ty.w bitkey.world and buy yourself a Bitkey. It’s a little hexa, you know, hexagon shaped device to store your Bitcoin for the long haul and keep it safe and secure. And uh anyway, uh good luck out there. I’m here for questions. Message me on Facebook. I’m here to answer anything. I can dig up old videos for you on any topic I’ve ever covered. And uh anyway, the bare market’s over. The fun times are happening now. And I am here to be your sherpa and your guide every step of the way. Let me know what I can do for you. I am here to help.