JAMES CHECK’s predictions about BITCOIN

James Check is my favorite Bitcoin analyst. In fact, a lot of what I do for my Bitcoin education content is taking stuff he puts out and repackaging it, making it as simple as possible for the average person to understand, and then delivering it, you know, for free. And obviously, I get, you know, James Check is one of many sources that I look at, but it’s my number one source. And obviously, then I follow Jack Mallers. Uh I follow um you know, Natalie Brunell’s news blocks. I follow I probably spend 5 or 6 hours a day reading and consuming news content and analysis related to Bitcoin. Every day. Somewhere probably 5 or 6 hours per day on Bitcoin. But my number one most valued source is James Check. All right, so what does James Check say? Well, first of all, he says we’re in a Bitcoin bear market. That’s not a surprise to anyone at this point. Second, everyone knows this is Bitcoin’s fifth bear market. Third, everyone knows that Bitcoin always emerges from bear markets. And the longest time period historically from the peak to the trough is 12 months. The last peak was October 6th, which means the longest it would likely take based on any historical example examples over more than 17 years of data to get to the lowest of low prices would be 12 months, which would or 364 days technically, which would be like October 4th of this year, which is 113 days away, less than 4 months. So, James Check says in a bear market, you typically have a price pain capitulation, which is a big waterfall cascade down that panics everybody by the price. The price is falling and everybody’s freaking out. And that happened on on February 5th, more than 4 months ago. February 5th, we had the price pain capitulation down to $60,000, freaks everybody out. That’s a very common thing in Bitcoin bear markets. Second, often we get a Bitcoin time capitulation. There’s price pain and there’s time pain. Time pain is when the price is after the price pain, the price has been grinding sideways, up, down, up, down, up, down, wearing people out, shaking people loose, knocking people off the wagon who just don’t have the conviction. And then you typically get a time pain capitulation, which is a second sort of waterfall down. Sometimes it’s lower than the first capitulation, sometimes it’s not. In this case, the first time pain capitulation, or I should say the Let me back up. The price pain capitulation was February 5th, down to 60,000. The time pain capitulation, at least so far, was down to 59,000, just 1% more. Instead of being the price being down 52% down to 50, sorry, down to 60,000, the price went down 53%, 1% more, 52 versus 53, 1% more, down to 59,000. Okay, so James Check says that was likely the time pain capitulation. And it is likely because the the bull market prior to this bear market, meaning the up market prior to this down market, was not nearly as crazy and aggressive as 2013, 2011, 2013, 2017, or 2021, that this bear market is likely to be a lot more sort of manageable and easy than than prior ones. And each one prior was easier, more manageable, and less, you know, sort of panic inducing than the one before that. So, therefore, the time is likely compressed. Historically, Bitcoin bear markets take between 7 months and 12 months to set a low a low and then recover. And often the the time pain the price pain capitulation is about 4 months from the time pain capitulation. So, we had that. We had the difference between $60,000 in February and $59,000 a couple weeks ago was almost exactly right in that strike zone window between 118 and 126 days. It literally fell right within that time window, which would match historical patterns. Now, also the price paying capitulation in February 5th was earlier in the cycle than historically. Historically, it took a longer to score sort of cascade down. So, it appears that this sort of bear market is compressed, meaning uh I think there’s a very good chance that the high to the low is 8 months, which is October 6th of last year down to whatever the low was this year. I should memorize memorize that date in my mind. It was whatever it was, you know, a couple weeks ago, whenever that was. Uh or a week or two back. Um I should memorize that date, whatever it was. It was like Maybe it was last week. I don’t know. It all runs together. Um maybe it was 1 week ago. Now that I’m thinking about it. Anyway, regardless, that was the lowest it got. So, um I think there’s a good chance that that 59,000 that we already had a week or whatever ago was the time paying capitulation. That does not mean All of these things are a process, right? We could have another time paying capitulation where we ground grind grind grind grind and then it dips again down. Now, does it dip below 60? Does it dip below 59? We don’t know. Uh nobody knows until retrospect, but every day that closes between now and October 4th or October 6th, depending on whether you want to measure it as 364 days or 1 full year, whatever. Depending on how you want to measure that, we got like 113 days left. Every day that passes, more and more people who believe in the Bitcoin 4-year cycle are getting nervous. They’re saying, “Hey, the time is closing. Maybe it’s time to front run everybody else and go ahead and buy as much Bitcoin as I’m going to buy rather than waiting for lower prices.” Because the closer we get to October 4th or October 6th, the more people are going to say, “Hey, we’ve never had in Bitcoin’s history a price that got lower more than 12 months later.” Meaning, you know, do you go ahead and buy Bitcoin now at 64,000? The answer is yes, that’s a fantastic price. I would not wait. But, there’s these people trying to time the market, which is a fool’s errand, and it’s stupid. Nobody can do it. They everyone always loses trying to do it, but that doesn’t stop people from trying. And there’s these people looking at it and saying, “Hey, the closer we get to October 4 or October 6, uh you know, the less less opportunity there is that Bitcoin’s going to get cheaper again. And at some point the price will start to run, and when the price starts to run and people start calculating, “Okay, based on how the price is running, and based on how close we are to October 4 or October 6, what are the chances it’s going to dip one more time versus they’re going to miss the boat, you know, you know, miss the train, whatever, uh you know, late to the party, etc.” And so, they start piling in. It’s just human emotion, and I mean, people do all sorts of dumb things based on past patterns. Usually, those patterns don’t repeat, and then everybody misses out. That’s a very common theme in all of this. Uh but, regardless, I think the price paying capitulation was obviously February 5th. The time paying capitulation was probably last week. That was 59,000 is probably the lowest this bear market goes. And if anybody says, “Well, look, Joel, you said 60 was probably the lowest it was it would go.” What, so you’re going to say I was off by one percentage point? That instead of the market being down 52% instead it went down 53% so I’m wrong? Whatever. I never said it couldn’t go below 60. But, it went below 60 less than a thousand dollars. So, like, come on. We’re dealing with like rounding errors here. So, anyway, but I think that probably was the time paying capitulation. Obviously, it was lower than the price paying capitulation, so now we know that in this bear in this bear market at least the time paying capitulation is lower than the price paying capitulation because 59,000 and 117 or whatever it was is high is lower than 60. It was down by 800 more dollars than 60,000 or whatever it was. Um So, anyway, as the window closes, as we get the SpaceX IPO, the Anthropic IPO, the open chat GPT, you know, open AI, chat GPT, Anthropic, Claude, when we get those two uh IPOs behind us, it’ll also clear the way for everybody to stop being distracted by shiny new objects going public on the stock market at trillion-dollar valuations, which should clear the way for people to rationally evaluate financial assets and all assets and decide what they want to invest in, rather than just chasing the latest trillion-dollar IPO, which a whole bunch of people are doing right now. So, one group of people that’s all into Bitcoin is sitting on their hands hoping for cheaper prices, which is dumb. The other group of people is chasing trillion-dollar IPOs, which historically has been a bad way of making money. Now, you can make a lot of, you know, if you had invested in the Magnificent Seven stocks, uh you know, their IPO their way above their IPO price. The problem is nobody know knew which seven stocks in the 1970s, ’80s, ’90s, 2000s, nobody knew which seven stocks in their IPOs were going to be the Magnificent Seven. Now, we know, and of course, if you had picked them properly, you would have made a ton of money, but there was no way to predict that, which is why investing in the stock market means you have to diversify. In my case, I have 100% in Bitcoin because I don’t feel like I have to diversify because there’s only one digital money uh in the form of a absolutely you know, scarce digital money, and that’s Bitcoin, and I’m just not worried about Bitcoin being outcompeted. I’m not worried about Bitcoin becoming obsolete. I’m not worried about picking the right crypto coin. It’s Bitcoin. I’m comfortable with that. I’ve done the work. I’ve done the research. It’s Bitcoin, and that’s why I’m 100% allocated. It’s that simple. So, let me know if you have questions. Otherwise, buy as much Bitcoin as you can, hold on to it for as long as conceivably possible.