Iran, stock market crash, MSTR solvency, and global recession

Let’s talk about the specific questions that this individual has. Uh, hi Joel. Sorry to bother to you. I don’t have anybody to bounce my worries off of when I see all these doom predictions online about what is going on in the financial world. I’m not a financial guy, so my understanding is limited regarding the effects and the following could could have on Bitcoin prices. My worrying factors are one, the Iran war starting causing oil shortages and price spikes affecting everything. I’m not really worried about that. The Iran war has started and stopped about 25 times. I feel like the market is mostly inoculated to it at this point, even if other countries get dragged into it in a more active way. I just don’t see the negative effects on Bitcoin. Um, we’ll talk about the stock market more broadly, but if Bitcoin suddenly craters increasingly, I just don’t think that’s the Iran the Iran war. Iran is just I don’t know. I mean, we’ve been off again, on again, on again, off again with that war, which I, in my opinion, never should have started at all. At this point, we’re mostly fighting to try to get back to where we were before the war started. We’re not actually, you know, fighting for anything new. Um, but anyway, regardless, so I’m not really worried about that. So, if somebody, in this case, this individual comes to me and says, I’m worried about my Bitcoin backed loan because of the war starting, oil shortages, price spikes affecting everything, I would say, I’m not really worried about that. So, that doesn’t mean Bitcoin can’t go long go lower. Uh, I just that’s not what I would be worried about. Uh, the stock market crashing. So yes, the stock market can crash, but uh this was the same in 2022 and 2017, you know, 2018 and all that. Uh in all of those cases, the stock market could have crashed and it could have dragged Bitcoin lower. Um it did crash on March 12th of 2022, sorry, 2020 with COVID. On March 12th of 2020, the price of Bitcoin did crash, but it crashed to a level that was still higher than the lowest it had previously been. So, you know, it was not at its low when that down spike happened. That down spike happened brought brought the price down to $3,500 or whatever it was, but the price had been as low as $3,200 in 2018. So, you know, it wasn’t the bottom. Now, if you get a global recession when Bitcoin’s already near the bottom of a bare market, could it drag it down farther? Yes. If somebody said right now, what is the issue that is most likely to drag Bitcoin down and cause liquidations of people’s Bitcoin back loans? I would say a global recession. I mean, it just is like it can bring the price down. But again, the same was true in the bare market of 2022. And the one thing I considered in 2022 is waiting for a global recession to push the price even lower. And I decided not to. I’m like, look, people have been predicting recessions since 2015. Here we are in 2022. It had been 7 years. Now we’re in 2026. So, it’s been 11 years since people have been, you know, talking non-stop about recessions being around the corner. Um, I mean, they’ve been talking about that since like 2013. So, it’s been like 13 years they’ve been talking about recessions being right right around the corner. And in 2022, there was a lot of recession talk. Uh, ultimately I decided, you know what, there’s no way to predict that. And if there is a recession, they’re going to print a bunch of money, which is true today. If there is a global recession today, they will print a ton a ton of money which ultimately will result in Bitcoin going much higher. Now, as far as getting liquidated on a Bitcoin backed loan, typically the money printer starts after the down, you know, the down hit has already happened. So, you do have to be worried about that. Like on March 12th of 2020, a lot of people got liquidated because the price drew dropped very quickly even though it recovered almost immediately. Again, if you get liquidated on a drop like that, it doesn’t matter if it comes back in less than 24 hours, you’re still liquidated regardless. But, uh, global recession is a concern. Okay, the next one. Micro strategy potentially becoming insolvent and dragging the whole Bitcoin space down. I am not worried about this at all. Of all of these things, this is the one I’m least worried about. So, I did a video back at the beginning of June saying that the number one reason Bitcoin was down was a nothing burger. N O T H I N G B U R G- E. Nothing burger. One word. You can go find it on my Facebook page or my uh YouTube page doing a keyword search for the word nothing burger. I got that video got 60,000 views. So 6060 6,000 views on that video. Um I feel even stronger. That video was recorded when uh Micro Strategy had $600,000 sorry $600 million of cash reserves. This video is being recorded when they announced this morning they had $2.5 billion dollars of cash reserves. So between when I recorded the video saying, “Hey, even though they have $600 million, you don’t have to worry about Michael Michael Sailor Strategy, Micro Strategy, MSTR, STRC, you don’t have to worry about any of that. They are going to be fine.” That’s what I told you when they had $600 million in the bank. Now they have $2.5 billion dollars in the bank. And guess what? You don’t even have to think about it. Not only do you need not to worry about it, you don’t even need to think about worrying about it. I’m just not worried about it at all. Anybody thinking Micro Strategy is actually insolvent? No. They are sitting on a massive pile of cash. They can pay their dividend and bond obligations and preferred stock. They can pay that for, you know, multiple years through a bare market. Like, and they just raised a billion dollars last week. Last week, people act like they’re going to be insolvent. Literally, they can reach over. They have an ATM, an at the market, meaning uh ATM in our world means like something you shove like a debit or a credit card into. ATM in their world means an at the market. ATM at the market. An ATM offering, an ATM offering allows you to sell your stock into the marketplace anytime you want. Now, it’s diluted to existing shareholders. It’s frowned upon if your MNAB, which is your multiple to net asset value, is below one because it’s means it’s not accreative to existing investors, meaning it’s not a net positive. It’s just dilutive. Uh but if you’re trying to save the company, who cares? So they raised a billion dollars last week which I believe based on their fancy you know exotic way of measuring IMNAV they consider to be accretive. Um I’m not sure that everyone would agree with that but regardless they’re fine. They are sitting on a massive pile of cash now. They have multiple years of reserves. They can live through I promise you they can live through any bare market you can possibly think of. They can live through it longer than you can. I am just not worried about them at all. So, Micro Strategy, Michael Sailor Strategy, MSTR, STRC, you don’t have to worry about that stuff at all. I’m not saying invest in it because it doesn’t mean someone over there on that side of the fence can’t lose money. I’m just saying they’re not going to implode and vomit all their Bitcoin on the market. That’s not going to happen. Like, they’re in the strongest place maybe they’ve ever been. I mean, give me a break. Okay, so I’m not worried about that one at all. The next one is talks of a global recession. Look, there have been constant talks of a global recession. Are we going to get one eventually? Maybe. I don’t know. Um, what we do know is nobody has any appetite for pain anymore. Uh, it used to be recessions happened and the Federal Reserve would, you know, they would eventually print a bunch of money, but they would let people experience some significant pain before that happened. Right now, nobody has any appetite for any pain. The government is running huge deficits. It’s addicted to the profit. uh it’s addicted to capital gains profits which only happen if the stock market is going up. If the US government allows a US recession, then their stock their uh tax receipts go way down. It blows up the Treasury market. It uh everybody’s angry and upset at politicians, which they don’t like. Um meaning the politicians don’t mean like being having people that are angry and upset at them. So for a bunch of reasons, I just think there’s no appetite for pain in the market anymore. And especially because the Federal Reserve doesn’t have to allow pain. They can push just like Micro Strategy has the ATM, the at the market offering of MSTR stock. Boom. They want they want cash. Boom. They just push the button and magically they have more cash. Well, the market more broadly can do the the Federal Reserve can do that with a with the magic button to print money. If they want to eliminate pain from the stock market, they push the magic button. They print a ton of money and nobody has to experience any pain. Now, they do have to experience a bunch of inflation, but that in but the pain of the inflation is spread out over a longer period of time and mostly hits poor people and politicians are less concerned about poor people because, you know, poor people don’t make political contributions to politicians. And uh so anyway, you know, and I mean anyone that thinks politicians get in politics for the little guy, virtually everything politicians do help people who are already wealthy and ignore people who are in need. Anyway, politics, I spent eight years in the House of Representatives in the state of Mississippi. Anyone who attributes, you know, positive stuff to politicians, I mean, give me a break. The whole thing is that’s not why they’re there. Um anyway, so all that to say, the people that politicians care about benefit when asset prices are going up. The income to the government goes up when asset prices are going up. Do they care if everybody has to suffer through some inflation? No. The people with assets just ride the top of the wave. The people without money get drowned by the inflation, which is horrible, and I’m against that. But the people who control these things and have the levers of power largely don’t care. So, as a result of that, I just think the complete lack of ability for anybody to experience any pain means the Federal Reserve is going to print a ton of money. They’re just going to print a ton of money. And so, if we start to get a global recession or the straight of Hormuz and I Iran starts to be a real issue, I just think they’re going to print a bunch of money. Um during the great recession which was caused by the Federal Reserve back in 2008 and 2009 the great financial crisis GFC which is caused by the Federal Reserve they took the you know I think it was I don’t know the Fed balance sheet went from 2 trillion to 4 trillion overnight and then during co it went from 4 trillion to 8 trillion overnight. They don’t care. They’re just going to print a bunch of money. So I think that’s the likely outcome. Um now the last thing this individual says is he says he only owns Bitcoin. uh he worked with an AI model to calculate on his loans and according to the data the threshold he has to defend for both liquidation levels down to 78 uh is down to 78%. If one of his loans drops to $25,576, that’s the liquidation level. I would say, look, if you got a liquidation level of 25576, I wouldn’t worry about that loan at all. And I would chase it all the way down. Uh, you know, adding collateral all the way down because I just don’t think there’s any way we get there. Uh, the second loan has a liquidation price of 33,352. Again, I’m not worried about that loan at all. I mean, I just think and I would chase I would add collateral to either of those loans all the way down. I just think in the current environment, there’s no reason to let Bitcoin get liquidated. I just wouldn’t let it get liquidated. I would chase it down with more collateral. Um I just would I just don’t think there’s we’re just Bitcoin’s in a great spot. I just don’t see how a rebound doesn’t happen. And I don’t see how prices that low even happen. Frankly, I don’t see how prices below 42 even happen. I really don’t see out prices below 54 even happen. And I think there’s a greater than 50% chance that 58,000 was the bottom. I just So I think anybody that’s got liquidation levels like these. Um the last thing he says here, my friend here in Iceland or my follower in Iceland, uh I consider all of my followers friends, but anyway, he says, “I’m also thinking if the Bitcoin price goes lower than my threshold, then it would have been a big mistake on my behalf to keep defending both loans to those levels as I have lost all of my Bitcoin.” First of all, you you haven’t lost the Bitcoin that you got from the loan. If your loan gets liquidated, you you lose your collateral, but you still have the Bitcoin you got from the loan. Um uh he says, “Already I have been defending them from when Bitcoin was 97,000. Um sorry to bother you with this. I’m not expecting financial advice. I just need to bounce my thoughts off of someone who understands where I am at and hear what we you would you do if you had to face similar uh troubles.” Uh anyway, so my answer is I would I would defend those loans. I mean, I’m going to defend the loans I have regardless of the price. I would defend the loans he has if I were him. Like I just think Bitcoin’s in a great spot. I think there’s just no reason to, you know, there’s no reason not to do that in my opinion. So, um anyway, bottom line is I think those loans, again, assuming the the liquidation prices are 33,000 and 25,000, I think they’re in a great spot. Um I think Bitcoin bounces back. I think we’re at or near the the the bottom price and I think as far as these concerns certainly I’m not worried about Micro Strategy Strategy, Michael Sailor, any of that at all. Um global recession is always an op option, but I think they’re just going to bail it out by printing a ton of money. And yeah, I just think the Iran Iran war everybody sort of inoculated to it because it’s been off again, on again, on and again, off again so many times. So, uh, anyway, uh, the best advice I would give you is I’m doing this video at 3:30 p.m. Central time, uh, central daylight time in the United States, and Jack Malers comes on, I believe, at 5:00 p.m., 90 minutes from now. So, if I were this individual, I would watch the Jack Mer show where Jack Morers, the CEO of Strike, is going to offer all of his opinions in 90 minutes, uh, which will be fantastic. It is always fantastic. go uh watch that live. And again, I’ll monitor things and I’ll say to this individual or anyone else, message me all the time, anytime. Uh if you have my contact info, message me on Signal or you can always message me on Facebook Messenger, which literally is available to 100% of people that are watching this. I’m always happy to answer individual questions. I’m always happy to weigh in on the health of your Bitcoin backed loan. Once again, I’m not a financial adviser. Not I don’t offer financial, legal, investment, accounting, tax advice. I’m not a professional adviser. I’m always happy to provide my opinion of what I would do in your position if I were you for whatever that is worth. And it’s free. So, you know, may not be worth anything. But anyway, uh always here to help. Let me know if I can be of assistance. And uh yeah, there you go. Hopefully this is helpful. And I will send the link to this video to my follower over in Iceland. And hopefully the content helps other people as well. Have a good one, everyone. legs.