Bitcoin touched $58,000 – Let’s talk about it!

Bitcoin kissed $58,000. Is something wrong with Bitcoin? Let’s talk about it. First of all, there’s nothing wrong with Bitcoin. How many times do we need to talk about this? So, if you’re walking down the street, you know, with somebody and they point out some random person and they’re like, you know, I don’t know that they’re going to make it. Like, it looks like they’re not going to make it. You’d be like, wait, what are you even talking about? Like, why why is that person not going to make it? They’re like, I just don’t know. They might just drop over dead. It’s like, okay, well, what would you do? You would go look at the vital signs. You’d say, “Well, what is their blood alcohol, you know, blood oxygen level, blood alcohol level? Let’s look at uh, you know, oxygen saturation. Let’s look at their blood pressure. Let’s do a blood panel.” You do all of that on this random person and you’re like, “They’re fine.” Like, what are you even talking about? That’s where Bitcoin is right now. Uh, if you want to watch the stat the stats, the uh vital signs of Bitcoin, you can always do that at meool.space. mem psac meool stands for memory pool meool.space meool.space will show you each bitcoin transaction. You see them flow through the system. It’s all anonymous and all of that sort of stuff. It’s kind of technical. You’re probably not going to know what you’re looking at, but I’ve done videos about meool.space and it’s the vital signs of Bitcoin. So, is anything wrong with the vital signs of Bitcoin? No. It’s processing tens of billions of transa, you know, of dollars worth of transactions a day. The government can’t censor it. The government can’t seize it. Um, you can transmit any amount of value anywhere in the world in a matter of seconds. Nobody can stop you. You can hold it in self-custody with something like Bitkey. You can give it to others in an inheritance. You can hold it in a 401k, an IRA, a Roth IRA, a rollover IRA. You can do all the amazing things with Bitcoin that you could do yesterday, last year, two years, three years, four years ago. All those things are possible, okay, today. So, nothing’s wrong with Bitcoin. All of the vital signs of Bitcoin are as strong as they’ve ever been. The network is secure. The nodes are doing their thing. Everything is totally fine. Okay. So, sorry. Nothing’s wrong with Bitcoin. Okay. So, why is the price of Bitcoin down? Well, first of all, there’s a huge amount of uncertainty worldwide right now. The straight of Hormuz in Iran is open. It’s closed. It’s open. It’s closed. We have a deal. We don’t have a deal. Nobody knows. Uh, everybody’s saying something different. Uh, Donald Trump is constantly saying things that blatantly contradict what the people in Iran are saying about whether a deal happened and what the terms of the deal are. Everybody’s contradicting each other. Nobody knows what the truth is. Nobody knows if the straight of Hormuz is actually open or closed. Will there be tolls on it? Will there not be tolls on it? Nobody knows anything. Okay, so there’s a lot of uncertainty. Also, AI is sucking vast quantities of cash out of the market right now. People are just hot ball of money chasing anything that’s moving and that pulls money out of things like Bitcoin. It frankly it pulls things money out of anything that is not going up right now because people are just chasing things that are going up right now. So the SpaceX IPO the upcoming uh initial public offerings IPOs of Anthropic which makes Claude of uh chat of open AI which makes chat GPT all of those things are coming up. It all pulls money out of the system. Uh also interest rates are high. Kevin Walsh is saying he’s going to keep interest rates high, which he can’t even do with 39 trillion in debt. The higher he keeps interest rates, the more unaffordable the US debt is. Like, it’s just not even possible to keep interest rates high. But he’s claiming he’s going to. So, people are freaking out that there’s just not going to be enough dollars to invest in everything and blah blah blah. You know, liquidity is going to be tight, etc., etc. So, lots of macro uncertainty. It’s sort of the environment is sort of worst case scenario for Bitcoin, which is low liquidity combined with lots of hot ball of money, shiny objects to chase, uh, combined with huge amounts of geopolitical uncertainty and all of that. So, all of that means Bitcoin goes down and kisses $58,000 for 5 seconds or 1 second or a fraction of a second or whatever earlier today. Is that the bottom? Nobody knows. uh according to James Czech, he’s like really as you move, you know, below 60,000, you just hit huge amounts of resistance going lower. In fact, the lowest number that he typically will ever even mention is 54,000. He’s like, look, when you get at 54,000, you’re just you’re hitting such a huge amount of buying pressure based on his historical trends. you’ve essenti uh trends. You’ve essentially uh stretched the rubber band so far below the historical averages that you just really can’t go a meaningful amount below 54,000. Now, could we go from 58 to 54? It’s possible. But even James Czech is regularly saying, look, these are low probability events. you know, every $1,000 increment below 60,000, there is just a huge amount of support that keeps the price higher because there’s just a huge amount of people that are like, “Ooh, 59,000 absolutely, I’ll take some. 58,000 even more.” I mean, there’s just levels that like it just gets harder and harder and harder to push the beach ball underwater when the beach when the beach ball keeps getting bigger and bigger and bigger and wants to float. It’s just it’s just going to pop up. And so we’ve been seeing that, you know, earlier this year, every time Bitcoin went below 60,000, immediately it got bought back up, pushing it above 60,000. Will the same thing happen today? I don’t know. Will this will this be the first day in 2026 that Bitcoin closes below 60,000? Maybe, but I, you know, nobody knows. Uh, but again, there’s just the the potential downside from here is just very, very, very limited according to James Czech and everybody. One second. Okay, so how much lower could we go? The magic question everyone wants to know. Well, of course, if you knew the number of how low we could go, you’d only ever buy at that number. If you knew the date that would be the lowest price, even if you didn’t know the lowest price, you of course would only buy Bitcoin on that date. So like, nobody knows this stuff. Michael Sailor does Michael Sailor is down like 12 billion dollars on his total Bitcoin holdings. So obviously he’s bought a huge amount of Bitcoin bel ab above today’s price and he owns more Bitcoin than all the nation states in the world combined and all the other companies in the world combined. One guy Michael Sailor with his company Strategy used to be known as Micro Strategy. Uh the stock ticker symbol is MSTR. Um he owns more Bitcoin than anybody. He’s got better insights than anybody. He’s got an entire team of analysts that can tell him, you know, the best time to buy Bitcoin. and he’s bought tens of billions of dollars at prices higher than today because again he knows it’s a good time to buy Bitcoin. He knows he can’t time the bottom and he knows he’s not stupid enough to wait around and try. So how low could it go? James Czech has I don’t know for the whole for the last I don’t know six or 12 months or I guess not 12 months for the last six months he’s been I haven’t heard any numbers come out of his mouth with any probabilities attached to them below about $54,000 which again is another I don’t know what’s that 5% 10% whatever below 58. Um so anyway we’re just dealing with we’re just dealing with small small potential downside from where we are today. Meaning right now is a fantastic time to buy Bitcoin and a bunch of people understand that. Now, if you go on Twitter or Facebook or any social media platform, there’s all these morons posting. It could go to 30, it could go to 25, it could go to 40, 45, 50, 55, could go to 55, nobody knows, but they’re they’re posting all these numbers that are completely inconsistent with historical patterns. So, you’re like, okay, but on a mean reversion basis, meaning how far Bitcoin is stretched below its average, once you get below 54,000, you’re just dealing with numbers. Once you once you get below 50,000, you’re dealing with numbers that the price has not been stretched that far below the average since like 2015 or 2011. There’s not I don’t see any catalyst that would pull Bitcoin below the the the sort of downward pressure it experienced in 2011 or 2015. I mean, it just those numbers don’t make sense. Um, so anyway, could there be more downside? There’s always a possibility, but it’s just very limited at this point in my opinion. It’s just very limited. So nothing’s wrong with Bitcoin. Nobody can predict an exact bottom price. Nobody can predict an exact bottom date. Now the good news is on the price according to James Czech, my favorite Bitcoin analyst and and anyone else with a brain. There is very limited downside from here. I mean there’s just limited downside no matter how you measure it. Whether you measure the Bitcoin power law, whether you measure the 200WE moving average, whether you measure uh you know percent of Bitcoin in profit versus loss, if you can measure you know average Bitcoin uh you know uh cost basis of long-term holders versus short-term holders, you can measure it a different all the different ways you can measure Bitcoin is going to tell you the downside from here is pretty limited. Like there’s just not much lower it can go without breaking all the historical models. And really, you’re not going to break the historical historical models of 2015 and 2011. I mean, those bare markets after 2011, after 2013, uh, which dragged into 2014, 2015, those were so brutal and so completely not even comparable to what we’re dealing with today that anybody that thinks we’re going to like retest, you know, mean reversion index lows from 2015 or 2012, come on. We’re just not going to do that. Like Bitcoin is a totally different beast today than back then. So vital signs of Bitcoin are healthy. It’s doing all the things it always did. It has the perfect monetary properties it’s always had. It’s more divisible, durable, portable, fungeable, authenticatable, and scarce than any other asset in the entire world. That hasn’t changed. Nothing’s changed on that. Um the downside from here is minimal. Uh if any, I don’t know, maybe 58,000 earlier today was the bottom. For all we know, it was the bottom. I mean 59,000. We touched 60,000 back in February. We touched 59,000 earlier this month. We touched 58,000 for a, you know, fraction of a second earlier today. These numbers are all similar. It’s not it’s not like somebody’s like, well, it in February it went to 60 and then it went to 59 and went at 58. The, you know, the bottom is unlimited. It’s like the bottom is not unlimited. We’re talking about 60 59 58 like and somebody’s like on its way to 30. Like wait, like how do you trend out 60, 59, 58 over 6 months and arrive at 30? Like that doesn’t make any sense. So the downside is just limited. No matter how what model you want to use, no rational person is talking about numbers below like 54,000. Although again, it’s not impossible. It’s just you’re just dealing with very very low probabilities. Okay, next up. When is the pain over? It sucks being in a bare market. Look, this is my second Bitcoin bare market. I started buying Bitcoin in 2017. I lived through the 2018 bare market. I lived through the price bottoming on March 12th of 2020, which was not even as low as 2018. It was just a big like huge drop on a single day on March 12th of 2020. I live through all that. I watched the Bitcoin price do all that. I lived through the Bitcoin bare market of 2022. I was buying all the way through the 22 22 bare market. As the price went below 40, below 30, below 20, below 19, 18, 17, 16, the deeper it got, the more I was buying all the way down to, I don’t know, the cheapest I ever bought Bitcoin in 2022 was 15,500 or, you know, probably 15,750 or something like that. It was like a few hundred bucks above the lowest it got in 2022. BUT I WAS BUYING ALL THE WAY DOWN. I was buying major chunks. 40s, 30s, 20s, the teens, all the way down. I mean, and I was buying all the way back up the other side, too. I mean, like nothing’s wrong with Bitcoin. It’s just everything is doing like if you’ve been through a bare market, it’s like this feels completely normal. Not only does this feel completely normal, it can feels relatively painless. You know, you want to know what 2018 to March 12th of 2020 felt like and 2022 felt like after FTX blew up, it was way worse than this. I mean, when FTX blew up, people are like, “Well, Bitcoin’s over, you know, wrap it up. Go home. There’s no more Bitcoin.” And I’m like, “No, you morons. It’s going to come back stronger than ever. It always has.” Look, the the time Bitcoin was most likely to die was in 2012 when the price dropped to $2. And what did it do? It went on to become the best performing asset in the entire universe. The second most likely time Bitcoin was going to die, it was 2014 when the price dropped to $92. not $2. It plunged to $92. 46 times as many dollars. And guess what? It bottomed and it rebounded at $92 and went on to become the best performing asset in the entire universe. The third most likely time Bitcoin was to die was the 20 whatever it was 2018 bare market where the price dropped to $3,200. Not two, not 92, but $3,200. And what did it do? It went on to become the best performing asset of recent decades. Right? The fourth most likely time Bitcoin was going to die was the 2022 bare market when the price dropped to 15,500. Did it die? No, it didn’t die. And all four of those bare markets were way worse than this one. And if Bitcoin was going to die, it would have died in 2012 or 2014 or 2018. Give me a break. By the time you get to 2022, there’s so much institutional adoption. There’s so much understanding of Bitcoin. Look, in 2022, Bitcoin was whatever for 13 years old. Bitcoin is now 18 years old. It was born in 2009. In January, it’ll be 18 years old. So, technically, it’s 17.5 years old. Bitcoin is 17.5 years old. It’s on its way to being 18 years old. It’s not going to die. Nothing’s wrong with it. This is normal. It’s nor it’s a bare market. The price is down. It does this. It does it about every four years. It’s not predictable. It’s not predictable enough to time it. Um, but it’s normal. Now, how much longer do we have to experience the pain? Well, October 4th, which is 364 magic days from the all-time high, is about 100 days away. 101 days, I think, exactly 101 days. Can you make it another 101 days? Yes, you can. Every time I post anything on Facebook or Twitter or anywhere else, there’s all these reply guys and morons saying, you know, Bitcoin always bottoms 364 days after the all-time high. You’re early. 58,000 can’t possibly be the bottom because it’s not 364 days from October 6 of last year. First of all, Bitcoin has bottomed at a different time span every single time. So, every Bitcoin bare markets, the recovery has been a different time. The fact that it happened to be 364 days in 2022 does not mean it’s 364 days today. Uh why wouldn’t it be seven months which is it recovered in a handful of months in one bare market. It recovered in seven months in another bare market. You know between the the high and then the low before the start of the recovery. So we we are already in the strike zone. Like right now, today, we are already in the zone of where Bitcoin has historically bottomed before going on to be the best performing asset in the entire universe. Well, like we’re already there. So, could $58,000 today be the bottom? Sure. Like, we’re in the strike zone. Now, could it also be later this year between now and October 4th? Of course, it could be. And could it go could it bottom in 3 months at 57 instead of 58? Yeah. Just like it went from 60,000 in February to 59,000 in June. And just like it went from 59,000 in early June to 58,000 in late June. Like yes, it can touch a lower level. It can kiss a lower level for 5 seconds or a day or even a week or two. Like it doesn’t matter. In the long term, Bitcoin always bottoms because of its fundamental underlying monetary properties which are valuable. The ability to send any amount of value, any amount of money anywhere in the world in a matter of seconds is a valuable thing. It will always be a valuable thing. And as the adoption of Bitcoin grows, it will grow until the the support the adoption is so high that it can’t go below $2 in 2012. And then the adoption was so high it couldn’t go below $92 in 2014. And then the adoption grew to the point where it couldn’t go below $3,200 in 2018. And then the adoption kept going going up and up and up so that the price never went below $15,500 in 2022. Guess what? There is way more global adoption today than there was at any of those prior times. So is the bottom is the price Bitcoin can’t go below 58,000? Maybe. Is it 57? Maybe. But it’s a number that is way way way way higher than 15,500 in 2022. And it’s a number that is very very very high probability above 50,000. and very high probability above 54,000. And so is it 55 56 57 or is it 58? If it’s 58, it already happened and you missed it and you better buy Bitcoin now because you’re never going to see it again. If it’s 57, 565, yeah, that would be in the future because we haven’t touched those prices yet. But you’re just dealing with very small differences. And look, look at the magnificent seven stocks, the seven highest performing stocks in the universe in the last recent decades. Is anybody thinking I should have tried to buy at 1% closer to the lowest it ever gotten when Amazon dropped from $106 to $6? You are an idiot if you were thinking, do I buy it at at at $9 or $8 or $7 or $6? Because each of those has a totally different return profile. Guess what? If you were buying Amazon below 10 bucks back in 2021 or 2022, whenever it bottomed, you are a gazillionaire today. And if you didn’t buy Amazon because it was $6 and you were waiting for $5, well, you’re officially an idiot. Same thing here. 58,000. If your if your conviction of Bitcoin is that it’s a good deal at 57 but not 58, you do not understand Bitcoin. If your conviction on Bitcoin is that it’s a good deal at 54 but not 59, you do not understand Bitcoin at all if that is how you think about it. Now the only caveat to those prices is if you are using a Bitcoinbacked loan to buy Bitcoin then yes sometimes you got to be more cautious. Sometimes you got to wait for lower prices because you have different liquidation levels. Uh so for example I have a Bitcoin backed loan at like that I took out at like 67,000 and another one I took out at either 61 or 63,000. One of those was on Strike, the other one was on Coinbase. Um, I will probably do another Bitcoin backed loan, but it’ll probably be at like 57,000. But I am totally fine with the fact that I will probably never take out that Bitcoin backed loan because I don’t like debt. And I already have two Bitcoin back loans. One for I think both of them are for $10,000 each. So, I have one for 10,000 on Coinbase and another one for$10,000 on uh Strike. But that means you got to lock up $20,000 of additional Bitcoin for each one. So, I’ve got $40,000 of Bitcoin locked up to buy $20,000 of extra Bitcoin. Uh 10 at 61 or 63,000 and another 10 at 67,000. So, each of those has a has has a liquidation price, right? If the price drops below some level, then my collateral gets liquidated. So if you’re using leverage, meaning you’re using debt to buy Bitcoin, especially if you’re borrowing against a stock portfolio or a Bitcoin portfolio, then yes, you do have to be extra careful and you do have to be really, really, really cognizant of exactly the price you buy because the price you buy determines where your liquidation level is. And a liquidation level, if you buy at 57,000, your liquidation level is thousands of dollars less than if you buy at 59 or 61. So if you’re using borrowed money, yeah, you do have to be careful. And it does make sense to wait for lower prices in times where you just are not comfortable with the liquidation price of a Bitcoin backed loan at today’s price. But if you’re buying Bitcoin with money that’s actually yours, all of the prices are amazing prices. If you’re buying Bitcoin with a 401k loan, which can’t be liquidated, it’s not marked to market. So if you have a 401k loan, it’s not going to be liquidated based on, you know, the variable price of Bitcoin or anything like that. Yeah. If you’re buying Bitcoin with a 401k loan, now’s an amazing time. All of these prices are an amazing time. If you’re buying Bitcoin with, you know, a heliloc, a home equity line of credit, which again, I do not recommend buying Bitcoin with debt, period. Just I have not and will not recommend buying Bitcoin with debt. But if you are, and I have, and I will because I’m super careful and I have tons of collateral and I can push my liquidation prices below $25,000 per coin. I mean, I can just I can over collateralize these things where the liquidation prices are literally less than $25,000 a coin, which I don’t even see idiots on Facebook and Twitter predicting prices that low. Like, I mean, nobody with a brain is predicting anything even remotely that close. So, I I can get my liquidation prices ridiculously low by overcolateralizing these things. Even so, I don’t like debt. Which means if I’m going to take out a third $10,000 Bitcoin backed loan, locking up another $20,000, taking my locked up Bitcoin and Bitcoin back loans from 40 to 60,000. Yeah. Then I want those liquidation prices to be even lower because I’m overcolateralizing all those loans. So, and I don’t like debt. Um, I just don’t like debt. Uh, so anyway, if I had any US dollars that were not already in Bitcoin, they would already be in Bitcoin because I would buy Bitcoin at all of these prices. 58, 59, 61, 67. All amazing prices. All 70s in the 70s, in the 80s, all amazing prices. Those are all amazing prices for US dollars that you own. The lower you get, the more appealing it becomes for a Bitcoin backed loan or something like that. We’re already in the strike zone for 401k loans, HELOCs. I mean, I these prices are ridiculously cheap for anything like that. The only thing that I’m cautious on is Bitcoin backed loans because again you got to overcolateralize them and you do have a liquidation price. If the price drops below a certain level, you part or some or all of your collateral gets liquidated which is obviously problematic. So uh that’s why you have to be extra careful with a Bitcoin back loan. So but uh if I didn’t have any Bitcoin backed loans already open, I absolutely would open a Bitcoin backed loan right now probably for 20,000. But because I already have $20,000 of Bitcoin backed loans backed with $40,000 of Bitcoin already at prices slightly higher than today, I’m a little bit reluctant to take out a third one. Uh although I will probably if the price touches, I don’t know, 57. I’ve had 57 stuck in my head for a third Bitcoin backed loan for, you know, a while now, at least some series of weeks. Uh so anyway, nothing’s wrong with Bitcoin. The monetary properties are the best they’ve ever been. Bitcoin’s amazing. It’ll always bounce back. This is Bitcoin’s fifth bare market. Nothing’s wrong with Bitcoin. This one’s much less worse than the others. The other bare markets have all backed, you know, bounced back within 364 days. That was the longest one, which was 2022, I believe. Um, so 100 days to go. Could the price go lower in the next 100 days? Of course it could. I, you know, the the probability it will get lower just goes down and down and down every time. One second. But yes, the price can always go lower, but the probability it will go lower gets smaller and smaller and smaller the lower the more under $60,000 you get to the prices as you get into the mid50,000s just get you started getting low singledigit probabilities that it’ll go lower than that. Uh according to James Czech and others. Um so uh but the price could go lower. If it does, it’ll almost certainly be in the next 100 days because all these all these reply guys on Twitter and Facebook all are claiming they’re waiting to buy Bitcoin at the bottom on October 4th. So guess what? Sometime between now and October 4th, they’re all going to start front running each other, right? They’re going to think, well, if everybody’s waiting for October 4th, I’m going to do it on October 3rd. Well, if everybody is else is thinking they’re going to frontr run me on October 3rd, I’ll do October 2nd. Anyway, they’re going to do that all the way up to today. And so at some point in the coming days or weeks or whatever month or two or whatever, everybody’s going to everybody who’s sitting on the sidelines with their US dollars waiting to buy the bottom is going to realize either we already hit it and they missed it or they’ve decided it’s close enough and they’re going to frontr run everybody else by buying before everybody else does so that they don’t miss it at 364 days because it ends up coming at 350 days or 340 days or 320 days or whatever. and they’re all going to try to frontr run each other which is going to push the price up. Um they don’t have to do that. Bitcoin is going to be fine regardless. It doesn’t need any of these people. It’s going to be fine regardless just based on the pure underlying fundamental properties. Uh also Charles Schwab is rolling out Bitcoin trading. Um I think they started people started posting on Facebook and Twitter that they had access to it yesterday. I checked my Charles Schwab account, which I use for some retirement stuff, and they did not have uh Bitcoin trading available on my account as of yesterday, but they have 46 million customers. They’re rolling it out in waves. I’ll let y’all know as soon as my Charles Schwab account lights up. Um, which means a bunch of other people got access at the same time I did, but I don’t have access yet. But anyway, a bunch of people of those 46 million people with Charles Schwab accounts as soon as they can buy Bitcoin on Charles Schwab is going to be like, “Ah, I’ll buy a little 10,000 100,000.” Look, a lot of people with Charles Schwab accounts are very large, you know, net worth. They might buy a million, 10 million. I don’t know. They have, you know, people on Charles Schwab and Fidelity have a lot more money than people on Robin Hood and Coinbase on average. um just because those platforms cater to a much higher net worth, you know, older, much more higher net worth uh audience. Um so anyway, nothing’s wrong with Bitcoin. The maximum time we have to wait for the pain is probably another 100 days. Uh the low could have been today at 58,000. We don’t know. It could have been earlier in June at 59,000. It wasn’t because we kissed 58,000. It could have been February at 60,000, but again, we are $2,000 below 60,000 when we hit 58. So, but again, it’s like $2,000 difference. Look, factor in inflation. Inflation’s above 4%. The inflation adjusted price in February was probably higher, you know, as far as the low. We probably set the low on February 5th because inflation has eaten away more than 2% of the value of the US dollar. I don’t know. I’d have to run the percentages. Obviously, you know, 58 is more than 2% less than 60, but whatever. The US dollar is also losing a lot more than, you know, 4% per year. But, uh, anyway, and and inflation as of this morning is officially above 4%. So, you know, if you think your US dollars are preserving value, the government says they’re losing 4% per year right now, they’re actually losing somewhere between six and 9% depending on what you buy and when you buy it. But, we have a relatively small amount of time left. If there is more time to, you know, for for Bitcoin to bottom, we’re dealing with a 100 days or less. At this point, we’re dealing with a handful of thousands at most on the bottom. Likely, we don’t know, but likely. This bare market is not near as bad as any of the four before it. The next one will not be as bad as this one. That’s how Bitcoin goes. It is what it is. You know, you’ll be fine. Everybody will be fine. Um, and look, you can you can wait around for lower prices. People did this in 2022, right? Bitcoin was trading below 16,000. And people were like, um, or it was only below 16,000 for like five part of five days. It never actually was below 16,000 for even one whole day in in uh 20 uh 2022. But look, everybody was like, we might get a worldwide recession that pushes it even lower. Well, yes. If we had gotten a massive worldwide recession right when Bitcoin hit $2, it would have gone less in 2012. If we got a massive worldwide recession right when it hit $92 in 2014, it would have gone lower. If we had gotten a massive worldwide recession, you know, in 2018 at $3,200 or 2022 at $15,500, it might have pushed it lower. Guess what? It might have pushed it higher, too. Because back in 2023 when three major banks blew up all in the course of one weekend, Bitcoin’s price went up, not down. Because people were like, “Crud, the world is screwed. I need to flee to somewhere safe, somewhere nobody can confiscate my assets, where nobody can make more.” And Bitcoin’s price actually went up when the banks blew up. So, could a massive worldwide recession that starts today push Bitcoin’s price even lower? Yes. It could also push Bitcoin’s price even higher because everybody flees the high-flying hot ball of money stocks like AI and SpaceX and all this and goes searching for something, you know, a place to hide out during times of uncertainty. Well, guess what? Bitcoin is that place. And when people realize that, you know, money floods into Bitcoin and away from all the things that people are freaked out about. So, look, Bitcoin will be fine. You’re fine. This Bitcoin bare market has a timer on it. It will end. You’ll be fine. You will regret not buying more Bitcoin just like everybody does. I have talked to people that were there in 2011 when Bitcoin dropped from $32 down to $2. You know what they tell you? When I asked him, I was like, “Did you buy it at $2?” They were like, “No.” Everybody was panicking. They were freaking out. Everybody thought it was going to zero. So, they didn’t buy any at $2. Obviously, somebody was smart enough to buy Bitcoin at $2 because otherwise it wouldn’t have bottomed at $2. But most people were just freaking out. Same with $92. Same with $3,200. Same with $15,500. Same with $58,000. Most people are just freaking out. The smart ones are like, “Wow, it’s this on sale for no good reason.” Wow. All right, let me say the last thing here. Another big reason, which I’ve already addressed in other videos that people are freaking out is the largest Bitcoin holder, Micro Strategy, run by Michael Sailor. MSTR is their tickle ticker symbol. Used to be known as Micro Strategy, now just strategy. They are the largest holder of Bitcoin in the world. They have about 850,000 Bitcoin, which is more than 4% of the entire world supply, universe supply of all the Bitcoin that will ever exist in the world. Well, people are freaked out because they’re they think Michael Sailor is going to get margin called or he’s going to be forced to dump a bunch of his Bitcoin on the market. Look, none of that is true. Michael Sailor has structured his Bitcoin stash where he is effectively never a forced seller. He has bonds and preferred stocks that he’s supposed to pay a dividend on, but the board can vote to defer the dividend, delay the dividend, or suspend the dividend. He doesn’t have to pay the dividend. Now, is that bad for things like STRC, which is trading significantly below $100, which was supposed to be the par value that they try to hold it at. Um, is it bad if they don’t pay the dividends on their bonds or their preferred stocks? Yes. But it’s not bad for Bitcoin. It’s just bad for the holders of those preferred stocks. But guess what? I’ve never recommended you buy any of those. Um, I do think STRC is pretty fascinating, but again, I own zero. Actually, I own one share. I own I I bought one share at like 90 $90 or something like that on Coinbase because I wanted to see how the dividends worked on Coinbase with a with a dividend paying stock. So, I own one share for $90 of STRC. So, does STRC are they screwed if Strategy decides not to pay the dividend? Yes. But who cares? That’s not Bitcoin. it’s just a stock that is loosely tied to Bitcoin. Um, if they don’t pay STRK or STRD or STRF, if they don’t pay those preferred stocks or uh or bonds, the dividends on those, are those people screwed? Yes. But that’s not bad for Bitcoin. That’s just bad for the holders of those bonds. Now, if they dilute into infinity the holders of MSTR, which is the common stock, which is supposed to acrue all of the upsides of Bitcoin that are not getting paid out in dividends, meaning it’s supposed to basically double the ups and downsides of Bitcoin, which means if Bitcoin’s down, it’s down twice as much. If Bitcoin’s up, it’s up twice as much. MSTR. If they dilute the heck out of that to pay the dividends on their preferred stocks or their bonds, is that bad for holders of MSTR? Yes. But guess what? I’ve never told you to buy MSTR. If you’re not a holder of MSTR, then who cares if they dilute the heck out of MSTR? So, someone asked also on IBIT, IBIT, which is the Black Rockck Bitcoin ETF that just tracks the price of Bitcoin when people buy or sell Bitcoin or people buy or sell IBIT or FBTC, which is the Fidelity Bitcoin ETF, FBTC, F as in Fidelity, BTC as in Bitcoin, FBTC. When people buy or sell those, it just has the exact same effect of people buying and selling Bitcoin. They’re just buying it or selling it in a stock wrapper. But so but yeah, so if people buy and sell that, it has the same supply and demand effects on Bitcoin as selling the actual underlying Bitcoin. It just it goes up and down. You know, every time somebody buys or sells uh uh IBIT or uh FBTC, at the end of the day, they have to settle up with the Bitcoin network, meaning they either buy or sell the equivalent amount of Bitcoin to settle up so that the stock always has is always reflected uh uh that it reflects the ownership of an amount of Bitcoin that’s equal to the stock price. So they’re always settling up either multiple times a day or once a day. But again, so what? Like that just reflects supply and demand of Bitcoin. Nobody gets liquidated on IBIT unless you’re using leverage or stupid stuff. So could Micro Strategy sell a bunch of Bitcoin and crater the stock price? Yes. But why would they do that? That’s like saying Elon Musk could sell the majority of his SpaceX stock and dump it on the market and crash the price. Yes. And Bill Gates can crash the price of Microsoft. And Elon Musk can crash the price of Tesla also. And Jeff Bezos can crash the price of Amazon. And Mark Zuckerberg can crash the price of Facebook. And uh the CEO and founder of Nvidia can crash the price of that one. All of those people own huge chunks of the stocks of those companies. As much as 25% of all the stock, not like 4%. Micro Strategy Strategy. Michael Sailor owns 4% of the supply of Bitcoin. Elon Musk owns like 25% of the supply of SpaceX and Tesla and you know Mark Zuckerberg. I forget how much. But these people own like huge chunks of these companies. So could they crater the stock price by dumping a bunch of it all at one time? Yes. But why would they do that? Why why would Michael Sailor crater the price of Bitcoin by dumping his stash when he doesn’t have to when it represents 100% of his net worth? That makes no sense. So he’s not going to do it. Plus, he only has 4% of the supply. So who even cares? So anyway, not Michael Sailor’s strategy, none of that’s a problem. They he structured the whole thing where he he can never get liquidated and he he’s never a forced seller. Like the guy’s a genius. You don’t he he’s not an idiot. He did not set himself up to get liquidated. But people don’t understand this. They act like, you know, if Michael Sailor’s, you know, stock drops below some level that he gets liquidated. He doesn’t get liquidated. He just sits there and waits for it to recover. He doesn’t have to do anything. The guy’s a genius. He’s fine. His Bitcoin stash is fine. So anyway, um they’re going to be fine. He sold 32 Bitcoin like three weeks ago just to prove that he could because he wanted a better rating agency by the S&P 500. He’s trying to get his company in the S&P 500. They said they wouldn’t let him in unless he proved he was willing to sell Bitcoin if he got in a pinch. He was like, “All right, screw you. I’ll sell 32 Bitcoin,” which is 32 out of 850,000. in the same week that he bought like a gazillion more, you know, whatever. I forget how much Bitcoin he he bought. The same week he sold 32, he was trying to sell a ridiculously stupidly small number just to prove that if he got in a bind, he could. So what? Like, so anyway, people are all freaked out that he’s somehow a force seller. He’s not. Give me a break. So Bitcoin’s fine. I haven’t done videos in the last week because I’ve been traveling. I’ve been doing a bunch of fun stuff. I’ve been fly fishing. I’ve been climbing mountain tops. I’ve been watching humpback whales do bubble net feeding. I’ve been watching, you know, puffins and uh sea otterters and watching glaciers cal. I’ve been doing a bunch of fun stuff because you know what? Bitcoin is fine and I’m paying for all of that with Bitcoin, which is down right now, but it’s fine. It’s fine because it’s going to be fine. I’m not worried about it. I’ve been here before. I’ve been through two of Bitcoin’s four prior bare markets. I’m living through this one with 100% of my net worth in Bitcoin. This is my third bare market. I’ve been through three. Given the fact that we’re more than halfway through this one, I’ll count it as a as a third. I’ve been through three of Bitcoin’s five bare markets. If this is your first one, I get it. You’re scary. You’re scared. You’re panicking. You’re freaking out. It’s fine. We’ve all been here before. Bitcoin will go on to become the best performing asset in the universe again, just like it always does. It will be fine. So, don’t worry about it. Go touch grass. Have a good time. Spend time with your family. Buy more Bitcoin if you can while it’s on sale. You’re going to regret all the Bitcoin you didn’t buy right now. I promise you. We all do. I regret all the Bitcoin I didn’t buy in in 2018 and 2019 and 2020. I regret regret all that Bitcoin that I didn’t buy back then. I regret all the Bitcoin I didn’t buy in 2022 that I should have and 2023. I regret all of that because I could have bought I could own a lot more Bitcoin than I do if I had greater conviction in 2018, 2019, and 2020 or even greater conviction in 2022, and 2023, which were years that I had very high conviction. It just wasn’t 100% conviction. If it was, I would have ramped up my net worth to 100% Bitcoin, which it is now, instead of ramping it up to 100%, which which it I finished off in March of 2025. Had I got to 100% in 2024 or anytime prior, I’d have more Bitcoin. But my conviction had not reached 100% out of 100% until March of 2025. And I guess technically it’s above 100% now because I have two Bitcoin backed loans. Um, which means I’m more than 100% exposed to Bitcoin because I have 100% in Bitcoin plus additional US dollar debt backed by Bitcoin. So anyway, you’ll be fine. Bitcoin is fine. It’s a bare market. It’s fine. Buy more Bitcoin. You will regret every dollar’s worth of Bitcoin you don’t buy right now. You will. You’re just going to. I’m promising you that. I’ve been there. So have a gazillion other people. 100 million, 200 million people have lived through a prior bare market prior to this one. Guess what? They’re all buying right now just like I am. Every time I get a chance or I get a US dollar, I get a paycheck or I get a whatever, you know, another Bitcoin backed loan, like it’s going to be fine. So anyway, you’re good. I’ll try to do more frequent videos now that I’m not traveling incessantly as I have been over the last 10 days. Uh, but Bitcoin’s in a great spot. Buy more Bitcoin. Buy as much as you can. Hold on to it for as long as conceivably possible. You’ll be glad you did. It literally is that simple.