The “REPLY-GUYS” are HILARIOUSLY WRONG!

The reply guys on Facebook are hilariously wrong. So, who are the reply guys? It’s all these guys, it’s almost always guys, that every time I post anything about Bitcoin, they start sounding off bragging about how much Bitcoin they’re going to buy at such incredibly cheap prices that are right around the corner. It doesn’t matter what I post, somebody sounds off. I’m buying a bunch when it goes to 50,000. I’m waiting for 45. Well, y’all are fools. I’m waiting for 40,000. You know, and then of course people it’s going to zero. I mean, it’s just crazy. Anyway, it’s worth understanding the kind of pathetic psychology of these reply guys. First of all, you notice their price predictions are all far enough below the current price that it is unlikely that they will ever get there or have to take action. So, they never say, “Hey, the price is 73,000. If it ever gets to 69, I’m buying.” Right? Because what are they going to do when it actually gets there? Well, they don’t know because they don’t they haven’t thought that far ahead. So, they’re always picking numbers that seem implausibly low, but if it ever gets there, they think, “But that’ll be on a huge discount.” So, the numbers are always like 50,000 and less. You almost never see anybody predicting that they themselves are going to buy Bitcoin at a price above 50,000. Because they’re thinking, “Well, it went to 60. 50’s pretty low. Surely, I’ll feel good about buying Bitcoin at $50,000.” But the problem with this strategy and all these reply guys is one of two things always happens. One, Bitcoin never actually goes to their target number, which is what usually happens. Yeah, you know, if they they say, “Hey, I’ll buy it at 50, 45, 40, whatever.” It just never goes there. The entire price cycle plays out. 60,000 ends up being the low or maybe it dips to 58, but whatever, it never hits their magic number 50 or their magic number 55 or whatever the number is. So, that’s the first thing. Almost always, no matter what number it is, they picked a number low enough that it never gets there, and therefore they get to brag on Facebook about how much Bitcoin they’re about to buy or going to buy, or how smart how how much smarter they are than everyone because they’re about to buy Bitcoin for a lot cheaper. And it never hits the price and they just disappear. Like they just for sort of pathetically slink off into the Facebook Netherlands or whatever. But, on the off chance that they make a prediction that is too close to the current price, and the price actually starts dipping down and getting close to it, they virtually always then chicken out. So, they will say, “Well, I was planning to buy a bunch of Bitcoin at 50,000, but there’s actually some really good reasons the the price is dropping.” Well, of course there’s good reasons the price is dropping. The price never drops from 73,000 to 50,000 for no good reasons. There’s negative news headlines, something happened. You know, it doesn’t affect Bitcoin, but you know, there’s some macro World War III Strait of Hormuz, who knows? There’s always something stupid going on that is causing a price drop. And so, they’re like, “You know, 50,000’s not a good number anymore.” It’s like, “What? Did you just chicken out? You just Your price started dropping and it started dropping towards 60 and you’re like, “Uh-oh.” 50’s right around the corner from 60. So, they lower their target is, “You know what? The magic number is now 42.” They come up with some new magic number that is far enough below their original magic number that you’re probably not going to hit it. And I just watch this play out over and over and over over the years. It’s been happening for all 5 years I’ve been in Bitcoin. Uh or I’ve been I’ve been a holder of Bitcoin since 2017, so that’s like 9 years. But, I’ve been advocating uh pretty, you know, regularly on on on Facebook for Bitcoin for the last 5 years. And constantly everybody is bragging about how much they’re going to buy at a price cheaper than the current price. And they always chicken out. Now and then, I’ll go very nicely ask, “Hey, by the way, did you ever buy Bitcoin at whatever the price they said they were going to buy it at it was?” Always crickets. I’ve never had anyone reply to that and be like, “Uh actually, I never did. Blah blah blah. Here’s the reason.” They always chicken out. Like it’s always crickets. Um so, the reason it’s a bad strategy to do that, uh, to pick a number, one, any number that you think now you’re going to feel good buying Bitcoin at, inevitably is a number low enough that it probably’s not going to hit it. That’s the only reason it feels good to say you’re going to buy it at that number is because the probability of it hitting that number is low. Meaning, it’s comfortable to say, “I’ll definitely step out on that ice as soon as the ice is X thick.” Well, that’s because the ice looks thin to you right now and you think, “If it’s a lot thicker, I’m sure I’ll be more comfortable.” So, one, you’re you’re going to inevitably pick a number that is unrealistically low, meaning unlikely that it’ll ever hit it. And two, you’re not going to go in River or Strike or Coinbase and set an actual buy order at that level. You’re just going to promise yourself that if it gets to that number, surely you’ll know that it’s time to buy. And again, you’re not going to because you’re going to lower your target. So, I have personal experience with this, right? I bought a lot of Bitcoin in 2017 and early 2018 around $9,000. And I said, “You know what? If Bitcoin ever hits 40,500, half, if it ever hits half the current price, I’ll buy a significant amount more.” Now, the lowest I ever paid for any Bitcoin was 6,400. Why did I not buy Bitcoin at 4,500? Well, because when it got there, which it eventually did in 2018, the price was dropping. What did I do? I chickened out. I chickened out cuz the price was dropping and I thought if the price is dropping past 4,500, maybe it’ll go to 4,000, maybe it’ll go to four, you know, 3,500. I chickened out. I didn’t buy it. And by the time I woke up, you know, months or years later and was like, “Dang it. Now it’s 7,000. Now it’s 8,000. Now it’s 12,000. Now it’s 19,000. Crap, I should have bought a lot more Bitcoin. I should have bought the Bitcoin at 4,500 that I said it was going to.” And I didn’t because I didn’t actually put in a sell order, I just told myself I was going to do that. Now, I did not run all over Facebook telling everybody how much Bitcoin I was going to buy at 4,500. That was just a mental note to self and I whiffed on it. Happens all the time. Uh people, you know, they I’m I’m at one guy. He bought a bunch of Bitcoin and sold it at $100 a coin and was going to buy it back at at lower prices. And then by the time he pay was paying attention, it was $300 a coin. He felt like, you know, he had sold however much it was, a bunch, and more than, you know, 100 Bitcoin. And he was like, “Well, I only got I sold it for 10,000. I don’t want to buy it back at 30,000 cuz it’s tripled in price.” And then, you know, instead of owning a bunch of $300 Bitcoin that is radically, you know, increased in price, he doesn’t own any of that Bitcoin cuz he sold it. And he was going to buy it back cheaper. So, don’t play those games. Don’t tell yourself you’re going to buy Bitcoin at a future price cuz you’re going to pick a price that’s unrealistically low. Um don’t pretend you’re not going to change the goalpost if it actually gets there because you will. And you’ll lower it, and that’ll keep you from buying. If you want to buy Bitcoin, either buy it right now, or if you just absolutely can’t bring yourself to buy Bitcoin right now, at least start dollar cost averaging right now. Dollar cost averaging, DCA, is when you buy the same amount every week. $100 a week, $1,000 a week, $10,000 a week, I don’t know. Pick Pick whatever number you can afford. At least start doing that right now. Now, if it’s me and I have an infusion of cash, I’m going to buy all of it with Bitcoin immediately. I don’t mess around with dollar cost averaging because over the long term, dollar cost averaging tends to underperform pretty substantially buy and hold. Lump sum. It’s called lump sum. Lump sum purchasing is just buy the Bitcoin, forget about it, walk away, let it grow in value. Uh dollar cost averaging is saying, “Hey, I’m going to buy, you know, X amount of Bitcoin, but instead of buying it all at once, I’m going to buy a portion of that, you know, $100, $1,000, $500, whatever it is, $10, every week, you know, for 2 months or for 8 months or indefinitely or whatever.” But if you can’t bring yourself to buy Bitcoin at 73,000 or 74,000, at least start dollar cost averaging now. That way at least you’re going to get exposure and you’re not going to wake up in 6 months and say, “Dang it, it was 73,000 and now it’s 103 and now I missed, you know, this huge upside.” And then you’re never going to be you’re never going to bring yourself to buying to buy the Bitcoin because you’re going to think, “Well, now it’s too expensive.” So, don’t trick yourself out of buying Bitcoin. Don’t outsmart yourself. Everybody gets too cute too cute by half. They all trick themselves out of buying Bitcoin and then they regret it later. You don’t have to play those games. Just buy as much Bitcoin as you can, sit on it for as long as conceivably possible. It’s not hard. That strategy always wins in the end. It’s literally that straightforward.