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Invest in Bitcoin now or wait for even cheaper prices if they come. The answer is invest in Bitcoin now. Uh it is a fool’s errand to try to time any market for any asset. Timing the market is trying to guess when it’s going to be cheaper than now and either uh invest based on a date that you think it will be cheaper or a price that you will think it will be cheaper. That is almost universally a fool’s errand. And a while back I ran all of the math which you can do yourself with the price history of Bitcoin and your favorite AI whether that’s Claude or you know Grock or Chad GPT or whatever and you can run the models out and you can say look you know the Bitcoin price is 60,000 or 59 or 58 pick a number and I’m considering waiting for it to be 56 or 52 or 54 whatever. What are the probabilities based on Bitcoin’s past price history that it will hit that number as compared to what is the prob what would the probabilities have to be in order for your EV which is expected value your EV to be positive meaning it actually makes sense to wait and what you will find out is there is no price that Bitcoin is at where the probability of the downside continuing is high enough to justify waiting. So, for example, if Bitcoin’s price is 60,000 and let’s say you want a 10% price drop below that to 54,000. I’m going to use round numbers here. 60,000 10 10, you know, 10% under 60,000 to 6,000 54,000. So, you’re going to wait for 10%. Well, the problem with that is best case scenario, best case scenario, it actually happens for you and you buy the Bitcoin at 54,000. But remember, you’re only buying the Bitcoin 10% cheaper than you could have had it already. and you’re taking a huge risk that the $54,000 never comes, plus a huge amount of stress that goes with it while you’re waiting hoping you didn’t miss it, but you’re only getting it 10% cheaper, which in the long run for an asset that returns hundreds of percent over time is insignificant. So regardless of what you think the upside of Bitcoin is, trying to capture an additional 10% on the downside or even 20% or 30% never makes sense because whatever the downside price you’re trying to capture is the statistical probability that it will get there is always lower than it has to be in order for your expected value, your EV to be positive. So uh let me use a simple example uh of what I mean by EV. When people go to casinos and they play uh blackjack or 21, whatever it’s called, and they do card counting, they have an expected value, an EV, which is if you’re card counting at blackjack, you’re expecting to make a certain amount of money per hour. And I don’t know what the number is. Most almost everybody who tries to do this loses money and as soon as they start making money, the casino kicks them out. So, you know, bad business model, but let’s assume you’re trying that. But let’s assume that the expected value of the EV is below minimum wage. you know, 725 an hour. And so somebody comes to you and they’re like, I have this genius idea. I am going to play play blackjack and the way I’m going to like game the system is by playing extra hours. Like you can’t game that system. Like your EV is less than minimum wage. If you play more, it’s still less than minimum wage. Like you can’t make it not less than minimum wage if your EV playing blackjack is below minimum wage. Now, for people who are really good count uh card counters, it’s above minimum wage. But regardless, for this example, well, the same is true in the case of trying to time the market with Bitcoin. If you’re trying to get a 10% cheaper price, the probability that you will get a 10% uh cheaper price, let’s use round numbers, needs to be at least 90%. Uh the problem is it’s not 90%, it’s like 70 or 80%. If you want a 1% cheaper price, the probability of getting that 1% cheaper price needs to be at least 99%. In order for your expected value, now these prices are not exact. There’s some complicated that math that goes into it, so it doesn’t line up exactly that perfectly. But the general gist is that, you know, whatever percent probability there is that something might happen or that you get that percent cheaper of a price on the asset, there needs to be the inverse of that that it’s going to happen. You want a 10% cheaper price, you got to be 90% sure it’s going to happen. You want a 1% cheaper price, you got to be 99% sure it’s going to happen. If you want a 30% cheaper price, you got to be, you know, 70% sure it’s going to happen. The problem is Bitcoin, none of Bitcoin’s historical uh prices over the last 18 years. None of them line up with that. They’re always significantly off. In fact, typically they are off by a multiple of between 4x and 6x, if I remember right. I could go update all of this math, but t typically they’re, you know, four to 6x off. Meaning, if you’re trying to get a 1% uh better price, the probability of doing that is not 99%, it’s like 96%. Meaning, you’re you’re basically playing with the odds 4 to one in your against you or 6 to1 against you in other scenarios. So, no matter how you run the math, you’re going to find out the odds are not in your favor. the probability of ending up upside down is much higher than the probability of ending up catching uh cheaper prices. And in all scenarios, it makes sense to just buy the Bitcoin now because waiting always results in an expected value that is lower. Meaning the the the the probability that you will get the discount is always lower than it has to be to be worth the discount. The juice is never worth the squeeze. Now, a lot of people say, “Oh, but here’s what I’ll do. I’ll wait for it to drop 10% and if it doesn’t drop 10% then I’ll buy it if it rises 10%. You know they do some sort of collarded weird thing where they’re like okay here’s the discount I want but if I don’t get it I am going to buy back in instead of sit it out for the next 20 years. The problem is even when you factor in those strategies you still end up with a negative uh uh expected value a negative EV. No matter what price you discount you’re trying to get you can’t get your probabilities high enough to be worth it. No matter what price you plan to buy back in at, if you don’t get your discount, you also can’t make the numbers work. Even if you say, “Well, look, I’m gonna wait for 54,000, but if 54,000 doesn’t come by X date, I’ll buy back in at 58 or 60 or 62.” That math also does not work. You run the math out and you find out that the probabilities once again that you’re going to get what you want and end up, you know, on the right side of the odds never exist. There’s literally no way to make the math work. Regardless of how long you wait, what low price you’re waiting for, what date you’re planning to buy on, what you plan to do if you don’t get your discounted price, no matter how you input any of those statistics, you end up with negative enterp uh expected value, a negative EV, meaning you’re worse off than if you had just bought the Bitcoin at today’s prices. All scenarios result in you being worse off statistically than today’s prices. Now, that doesn’t mean it doesn’t happen, right? you could buy today at 60,000 and the price does go to 54 and you’re like dang it I could have had a 10% discount. It’s like okay but the probability that it was going to go down there is only 10%. Or something like that. So it needed to be 90%. But it was only 10%. Now can you get lucky? Can you walk in and uh you know you know walk into investing and somebody says hey 90% chance you’re going to lose 10% chance you’re going to win. You take the 10% odds and you still win. Well, of course, but that’s a stupid way to do it because you’re stacking the odds radically against yourself. And in the case of this, they’re typically four to 4x to 6x against you. Meaning, whatever percentage the odds need to be for you to wait is typically only 1/4 to 16 as high as that. And so, what do you do? Well, if you wait, you can get lucky. But that’s still a dumb idea. Like if somebody came to me and they was like they were like look could have bought at 60 waited for 54 54,000 did come and I got it. I’m not thinking wow you’re a genius. I’m thinking all right you got lucky. The odds were absolutely not in your favor and you still won. That doesn’t mean well good for you. I mean you got Bitcoin 10% cheaper. But that’s a moronic way to invest because the resulting effect of that is the majority of the times nine out of 10en times you lose. So, the fact that you just happen to win this one does not make me think you’re a super smart investor. It means I think you don’t understand statistics and probabilities and it is absolutely possible for somebody who does not understand statistics and possibilities to be right. I mean, somebody always wins the lottery. The lottery is a ridiculously stacked against you. Like, the lottery is like the worst thing you could possibly do with your money if you want a good return on investment because your odds of winning are like one in 200 million. and the winnings based on, you know, they’re obviously going to collect way more money than they pay out in winnings. So, the odds are like just ridiculously not in your favor with the lottery. Same with casinos, but people do it anyway. And somebody’s going to win. That doesn’t mean they were smart. It means some idiot who doesn’t understand statistics and probabilities won the lottery because somebody has to win. Well, somebody will always win. But that means the vast majority of time it’s not you and it’s not anybody else either. It’s just a couple lucky people. So, somebody will end up buying the bottom of this bare market. Maybe that was 58,000. I don’t know. Somebody will buy the bottom. That doesn’t mean they’re smart. It It means somebody will get lucky because somebody is always going to buy the bottom because there will always be one last trade when the price turns. When the price of Bitcoin bottoms at whatever price it bottoms at, maybe it was 58,000. Somebody was the one that sold and bought $58,000 Bitcoin. And if that was somebody, well, good for them. They got lucky. But that’s not because they, you know, did technical analysis and figured out 58,000 was the perfect number. They just got lucky. The probability that it would bottom at exactly 58,000 is, I don’t know, one in a,000, something like that, and they happen to guess it. Well, that doesn’t mean they’re smart. It means they’re lucky. So, the smart money, in my opinion, is buying Bitcoin. Now, if you want to dollar cost average, which means you buy the same amount of Bitcoin every day or every week or whatever, great. Good for you. Typically that results in lower uh total returns over time but it does even things out and it tends to be less stressful for for people. So if you want less stress and probability being lower returns then dollar cost averaging DCA dollar cost averaging is a good way to lower the stress associated with investing. It also lowers your returns which is why I don’t do it. I don’t dollar cost average because any, you know, anything you ever look at is going to say, “Yeah, the stress comes down, but so does the returns.” And I’m a guy. I’m 46 years old. I’m looking for maximum returns. I’m not looking for low lowest possible stress. So, I’m trying to maximize total returns. And the way you do that is generally lumpsum investing um and buying as much as you possibly can when the prices are down, which is what I do. Uh so, anyway, uh I think now is fantastic time to buy Bitcoin. the prices are cheap. And uh again, the only exception to any of this advice is if you have a Bitcoin backed loan, then you do have to be careful what price you pay for it because your liquidation price needs to be lower than any realistic price Bitcoin could ever hit. In fact, I generally tell people the the liquidation price needs to be half of the lowest you think Bitcoin will ever go. So, if I was meeting with somebody and they were saying, “Hey, I have a Bitcoin backed loan. I’m about to buy Bitcoin.” I would say, “Well, what’s the lowest you think Bitcoin could ever go?” They’re going to say $50,000. I would say I would say great. Then your liquidation price on your Bitcoin back loan needs to be $25,000. They’re going to say, “Well, that’s ridiculous. It’s not going to go that low.” Yeah, but I agree. I don’t think there’s any way it goes that low. But I promise you, whatever number you think is reasonable, it can go below that number, which is why you need to have a liquidation price that’s half of that number. And then sure, what you know, you’ll probably, you know, be okay. Uh, but that means you need a ridiculously low liquidation level if you have a Bitcoin back loan. So in order to get that sometimes you do have to wait for cheaper prices but again that is unique to Bitcoin backed loans that is not uh that does not apply in situations where you are investing your own money that cannot be marginal called or liquidated and all that. So uh buy as much Bitcoin as you can hold on to it for as long as conceivably possible. Now is great prices. I would not wait.