Was DROP to $59,159 the BOTTOM?

Was the price drop to $59,000 over the weekend the bottom of this bare Bitcoin bare market? Uh the answer is probably yes, but again, we don’t know because there was a good chance that the drop down to $60,000 back on February 5th was also the bottom. We just don’t know. But we can look at probabilities and statistics and find out how likely certain things are to happen. So, first of all, let’s recap. The bottom prior to this past weekend of the Bitcoin bare market had been on February 5th with the price pain capitulation which is on the front of a bare market. You typically have a price pain capitulation which is a abrupt drop in prices that result in everybody freaking out and panicking which they absolutely did at the beginning on February 5th. Typically after some period of time you end up with a time pain capitulation. Now, historically, that has been between 118 and 126 days later, which falls between June 3rd and June 11th. Well, it just so happens that this potential price pain or sorry, time pain capitulation happened right within that time window between June 3rd to June 11th. Now, the fact that historically those were about four months apart does not mean they’re automatically going to be four months apart this time. And this Bitcoin bare market is already behaving differently in that um you know the the initial price drop was more aggressive but the uh price the magnitude of the price drop was significantly less aggressive than in the past. So every bitcoin bare market is different but u certain things you know as they say uh history does not repeat but history does rhyme and so it does make sense that you know here we are we had after about 4 months we had a price paying capitulation from 126,000 down to the February 5th low of 60,60 uh which took four months to drop down that low and then very predictably about 4 months later we had a new low set. Now, we did not know if that new low was going to be lower than the February 5th low or if it was going to be higher. For all we knew, it was going to go up to 85 and then drop abruptly to 72 and that would be it. I mean, again, there’s just no way to know in advance if a time pain capitulation, which is a capitulation, meaning people sell. That is based on time. It just wears people out. As we’ve talked about, uh, markets either scare you out with a price pain capitulation, or they wear you out with a time pain capitulation, meaning it’s just gets so hold hard to hold the asset because it’s just been grinding sideways or slightly up or slightly down for so long near the bottom that people just give up because they just don’t they don’t understand how bare markets work. They don’t know that Bitcoin always comes back. They don’t realize that this is Bitcoin’s fifth bare market. Yes, fifth bare market and all of that. Okay. So, uh, so the price previously the low had been February 5th at 60,000 which is a 52% draw down. And I said that that is a Q10 event. Meaning that is a the the bit Bitcoin at 60,000 back in February is in the bottom 10% of the lowest prices it’s ever been compared to its long-term historical trend line which is Q10. Q12 means it’s, you know, it’s been lower 12% of the time. Q10 means 10% of the time, etc., etc. So what happened on uh on over the weekend is I think it hit another Q10 event. So the the the averages are always drifting up over time and so uh you know hitting up 60,000 on back on February 5th can be equivalent to uh or hitting you know similar levels now. Now now I need to go back and look. Maybe it was a Q I guess it would have it would have likely undercut it. So it would have been at least a Q10. Maybe it was a Q9 event, uh, bottom 9% of days. But if you look at how low the prices go and what it takes to pull the price down, I want you to picture this. I want you to picture stringing a rubber band between two trees that are 20 ft apart. It’s a big old rubber band and it’s, you know, uh, it’s pretty tight. Like, it’s just pretty tight. Okay. And markets, when something is becoming monetized, like Bitcoin, it starts at the middle of that rubber band. And your goal is to work from the middle of the rubber band toward the end of the rubber band, which is when something is fully monetized and it has relatively little volatility. So when you’re starting in the middle of the rubber band, January 3rd, 2009, Bitcoin’s in the smack middle of the rubber band. And at the beginning of any asset is the maximum volatility. If you take that rubber band and you stretch it up, you stretch it down, you’re going to notice that rubber band will stretch the maximum amount at the beginning. And the very first Bitcoin bare market in 2012, that rubber band was able to stretch 94%. Uh, as compared to where the the starting point, it was stretching a lot because you’re in the sm middle of the rubber band with mass maximum stretch. Now, you start working your way toward one tree or the other. Uh, representing, you know, the end point where the rubber band is actually tethered indicates the point at which the asset is fully monetized, which we’re going to say in Bitcoin’s case, let’s say that happens over 13 years. We’re 17 years 17 into 13 into 30. So we got 13 years to go. Or maybe it takes 40 years. Regardless, maybe we’re less than halfway, you know, regardless. Okay. As you get toward the trees, one or other of the trees that the rubber band is attached to, your ability to stretch that rubber band up and down gets lower and lower and lower. And the reason for that is you’re getting farther and farther and farther from the midpoint and closer and closer and closer to the point where there is not volatility because the asset has been fully monetized. So an interesting thing happens between 70,00070 and 60,00060. the uh quantiles drop at about 1% per thousand. Meaning when Bitcoin is $70,000 right now, it’s a it’s at Q20, meaning 20% of all days have been relatively lower than that price level. And then again, 69 is about 19% of days. 65 is about 15% of days, all the way down to 60, which is about 10% of days. But something h interesting happens when you hit Q10, which is that rubber band gets a whole lot harder to stretch as the price gets lower. So instead of it taking moving about one percentile per thousand, it uh starts to take a $2,000 move to move it one percentile. So the rubber band just gets a whole lot harder to stretch below $60,000. So for example, down to $51,000 would be a Q5 event. So instead of moving 1% per increment, which would take you all the way basically down to Q0, you know, because there’s only Q10 left at Q 60, excuse me, excuse me, rather than taking you down to zero, that rubber band just gets harder and harder to stretch. So when you get below 60,000, it just takes an enormous amount more force on that rubber band because you’re just so close to um you know, as the as the uh asset matures, it’s just requiring a lot more force to move it as compared to what used to be the case. So if we were sitting here in 2012, 2014, 2018 or 22 and somebody said, “Hey, how much, you know, pressure is it going to take to push uh, you know, how much selling buying and selling, how much selling pressure is it going to take to push Bitcoin uh down into the mid mid to low 50s, I would say. Well, back in 2022, it was absolutely possible. I mean, we were just, you know, four years farther away from the tree that’s tethered to the point where Bitcoin does not have volatility anymore. It just was a lot easier to move things. Well, we’re four years closer to that tree. Instead of being, you know, let’s say it’s a, you know, 30-year monetization process. Instead of being uh what were we 13 years into that process, we’re now 17 years into that process. We’re a lot closer to that terminal point where the rubber band is attached and it’s a whole lot harder to move things. So anyway, um we don’t know, there’s no way to predict proactively. We can only know in retrospect after the fact whether $59,000 was the bottom. What we do know is it undercut the previous low by 1%. You know, the the all-time high was 126, which means a drop to 60,000 was a 52% drop, and the drop to 59,000 was a 53% drop. So, if anybody says, “Hey, Joel, we’ve been watching your videos. You said there was only a 10% chance it was going to undercut 60.” Well, that was true. Based on every historical Bitcoin mean reversion index, we had about a 10% chance to undercut it. And guess what? But we did undercut it by literally less than $1,000 and literally one percentage less than one percentage point uh lower it. You know, the price went down 53% from the all-time high instead of 52% from the all-time high. Literally 1%. So uh so yeah, was that the price pain or time pain capitulation? It may have been. It feels like it was. It certainly fell within the time of frame uh that would be consistent with, you know, historical patterns of Bitcoin. But again, we don’t know. There could be World War II. Somebody could do something stupid, you know, in world affairs. I mean, all sorts of things could happen that result in uh uncertainties hitting that we don’t expect, including a worldwide recession, you know, you name it, all that sort of stuff. Um, so the uh there’s a very good chance that the 59,000 uh undercut of 60,000 by less than $1,000. And there’s a good chance that that was the time pain capitulation happening nicely 4 months later. It did undercut 60,000. There’s no guarantee it was going to. Again, the price could have gone up to 85 and dropped to 65 and that would have been a time pain capitulation. It does not have to undercut the first price pain capitulation. In fact, often in most Bitcoin bare markets, the time pain capitulation did not undercut the price capitulation. Oftentimes, it doesn’t. often times the price has rebounded high enough away from that low that the uh time pain capitulation does not undercut it. Uh it it may come close but it it often does not undercut. Uh in this case it did. We got an undercut four months later down to uh just above 59,000 instead of the previous all-time low of 60. So that’s where we are at the moment. We don’t know if that was it, but everything’s right on track. Nothing’s weird. Nothing’s awkward. Nothing’s happening completely unexpectedly. Uh, in fact, if anything, Bitcoin is more predictable than I would have expected. Uh, the people who believe in the 4-year Bitcoin price cycle are gloating right now because they’re like, “Haha, we told you there’d probably be a high in the fourth quarter of 2025, and we told you it there’d probably be a low, and it’d probably take until one year after the high to reach the low of the low, which personally I think is unlikely. Uh I don’t think we’re going to make it all the way till October 6 to get the uh the ultimate low. I think there’s a good chance the low over the weekend was the low. Uh but there’s people who are waiting. There’s people who are absolutely positively certain that the low of Bitcoin is going to be exactly 364 days after the first the high. So, there’s all these people who think they’re all waiting around for February 5 of 2026 when they claim they’re going to buy back in at the lowest of low prices. I personally think they’re going to radically miss the lowest of low prices. But what do I know? Every price prediction, including theirs and including mine, is never completely accurate because the future is just not knowable. But regardless, we did undercut 60,000. That was whatever a Q9 event. I don’t know. So James Czech has not sent a new uh a new newsletter update since that uh happened. That will probably happen tonight. Typically we get those early in the week and it’s only Monday. Um so we’ll get the update from James Check and he’ll highlight you know where 59,123 or whatever it was uh where that is what quantile that is in and uh how that compares to the initial price paying capitulation on February 5th. I can tell you the the the feedback I’ve gotten from people radically different this time around. I mean, the vast majority of communication I’ve gotten this time around was people sending me screenshots of how much Bitcoin they had bought versus February 5th, which virtually all the communication was people absolutely freaking out, worried that something was wrong with Bitcoin and that their Bitcoin was going to zero. So, very different vibes this go round, which is expected. Um, in a price pain capitulation, everybody’s freaking out. In a time pain capitulation, the people who are exiting are typically people are exiting quietly, just giving up and walking away versus the people who are still buying down there are pretty excited about it because they’re getting Bitcoin at a serious discount and they’re jumping up and down and they’re just super excited, which seems to be again exactly what we’re experiencing this time. So, everything’s right on track. Bitcoin is doing exactly what it should do, what it, you know, always does. Um, inevitably this price cycle of Bitcoin will be just different enough that it’ll mess up people who think they can they can time it, you know, just right or, you know, whatever. Um, so don’t play don’t play the games. Don’t sell your Bitcoin and buy it back on October 4th or 5th. Like don’t do stupid stuff. Don’t outsmart yourself out of Bitcoin. It’s really as simple as buying as much Bitcoin as you can and holding on to it for as long as conceivably possible. That’s never been wrong. No one who’s ever done that in the long term has regretted it. It’s outperformed every other asset. Uh the same will be true this time. So it’s uh it’s really, you know, pretty straightforward. And if you want to understand the four-year Bitcoin price cycle numerous times on my videos, I’ve recommended the book The Bullish Case for Bitcoin by VJ Boyati. The audio book only takes uh 2 hours and 14 minutes. And if you listen to it at 1.5x or 2x, it’s even shorter than that. The bullish case for Bitcoin by VJ V I J A Y VJ Boy Buaati, which I’m not going to try to spell, but anyway, look it up on audible.com or Amazon.com. Uh the bullish case for Bitcoin. It’s got a picture of a like a human figure wearing a bull, you know, outfit or something on the cover. But anyway, that explains the Bitcoin four-year price cycle. It explains why it happens. It explains why Bitcoin always bounces back. And again, it’s it’s one of the best books ever written about Bitcoin. And I spent a lot of 2025 recommending people read that book. And what I said was, look, we don’t know if the Bitcoin four-year cycle is over or not, but it’s helpful to understand what it is so you can at least, you know, have an informed perspective if we’re going to get another four-year cycle, which means, you know, a recession and then three up years and then a, you know, a downturn and then three up years and a downturn instead of and three up years. if we’re going to get that, which I did not think we would. So, obviously I was wrong because here we are. But I recommended a bunch of times in 2025 that people needed to understand that so that if it did play out that way that they would understand what was going on. It would not be this completely foreign concept like why is Bitcoin in a price dip, all of that. It would be just a totally sort of run-of-the-mill. I get it. I know why we’re here. I know how we got here. Everything’s going to be fine. So, go read BJ VJ Boyott’s book, The Bullish Case for Bitcoin. Highly recommended. You’ll understand exactly why we’re here. You’ll understand why Bitcoin has operated on this four-year cycle. You’ll understand why it’s the inevitably going to end at some point. I thought it had already ended. Apparently, we have at least one more cycle in us, which is where we are right now. Um, I would never try to sell your Bitcoin at the top and buy it back lower. Virtually everybody who’s ever attempted to do that has gotten screwed, so I do not recommend that. Um, but anyway, read the book. You’ll feel a lot better about Bitcoin and its price action and why it behaves the way it does after you read that book. It’s a short book. It’s available in Audible. Uh, it’s a great book. Highly recommended. And I spent a huge amount chunk of 2025 recommending that book. So, if you need anything, let me know. Always here to be your Bitcoin Sherpa to help in any way I possibly can. And uh hopefully the drop down to 59,000 and change was the time pain capitulation. Meaning we had a price pain capitulation on February 5th down to 60, a time paying capitulation down to uh 59 and change that happened over the weekend and hopefully we are now off to the races. But we don’t know. There could be one more time pain capitulation between now and October 5. We just don’t know. But let me know if you need anything. I’m here to serve. Nothing’s wrong with Bitcoin. Everything’s right on track and surpris behaving surprisingly similar to past cycles, which is honestly surprising. So here to help anybody who needs it.