Why bitcoin ALWAYS bounces back AND WILL this time also!

why Bitcoin always bounces back and why it will this time also. Okay, so here we are sitting just below $63,000 per coin on June 3rd at 8:20 p.m. Central time when I’m recording this. Okay, so below 63,000. The question people always ask in bare markets is how do you know it’s coming back? How do you know it’s not going to just keep going lower and then lower and lower and lower until it’s like gone? Because we’ve seen that, right? We see we saw that in the great recession when General Motors went to zero and ultimately bankrupt. We’ve seen a bunch of companies over the years go to zero. We’ve seen a bunch of crypto tokens and crypto whatever memecoins whatever go to zero. So the difference here is that Bitcoin has an underlying value. It has a fundamental underlying value which is the ability to transmit value anywhere in the world in a matter of seconds in a way that nobody can stop, nobody can censor, nobody can seize. You can store it, you can send it to anyone, you can convert it into and out of any other currency anywhere in the world. And more than a trillion dollars has been stored in the Bitcoin network. Okay? So, the underlying technology has value because nothing else in the world, no other technology, no company lets you be able to do that. If I want to send $50,000, you know, to Hong Kong tonight, Bitcoin lets me do that. I can do that in seconds and nobody can stop me. No other technology lets me send $50,000 to Hong Kong tonight. I can’t do that with Vinmo. I can’t do that with uh a wire transfer because the banks are closed. There’s no I can’t do that with any other financial system or financial technology in a way that nobody can block, nobody can seize, nobody can censor. Bitcoin has that value and it’s perfect money. Uh the attributes of a good money, it is uh divisible, durable, portable, fungeible, authenticatable, and scarce. The six attributes of a perfect money. And Bitcoin perfectly fits the six attributes of a perfect money. Better than gold, better than the US dollar, better than anything else humans have ever invented or discovered. Okay? So, Bitcoin has that underlying value. And as a result of that, the lower the price goes, the more people who are willing to buy it. At every price that is lower than the previous price, it unlocks more demand at that price. Right? So the price there’s always a floor for how low the price could go because there’s always a certain number of people at that level. So let’s assume you’re at a farmers market and you know you know let’s say you’ve got I don’t know whatever you’re selling loaves of bread and it’s a massive you know farmers market and somebody’s like well what what makes your loaves of bread valuable? Like what if nobody wants bread? What if it goes to zero? And the answer is it’s not going to do that because if the far farmers market is big enough and in this case the market for Bitcoin is 8.3 billion people around the world at least all of them who are old enough to have any use for money. Uh that is the market and in that market 400 million people own Bitcoin already about 5% of the population. Okay. So every one of those has a price in their head at which they will buy more Bitcoin. So in my case, for example, I bought $10,000 of Bitcoin at 67,000 yesterday on a Bitcoin backed loan. I don’t want to buy more Bitcoin on a Bitcoin backed loan until Bitcoin is below its 200E moving average, which I thought it was unlikely that it would even touch, but it’s getting close. The 200E moving average, um, which is the basically 4-year moving average, uh, right now sits at about 61,700. So, it’s like, yeah, if the price goes below $61,700, I’ll buy another $10,000 of Bitcoin or somewhere in that ballpark. You know, just a good $5,000 plus off the previous price I paid for for the last 10,000 I bought, which was yesterday at 67,000. So, it’s like, okay, I’m not a buyer of Bitcoin at 63,000 because I just bought 10,000 uh additional Bitcoin at 67. Yeah, but if it gets below 62, I’m probably another, you know, a buyer for another 10 grand, something like that, you know, maybe five grand for smaller increments, you know, stuff like that. Okay, so everyone’s in that position. I know people with a a uh 401k loan for $50,000 and they have portions, some of that is already deployed, but they have portions of it that they’re deploying uh and they have buy orders at 62,000 and 57,000. Maybe they trigger, maybe they don’t. If they don’t trigger, they’re just dollar cost averaging in regardless of the price. But if they do trigger, meaning if the price goes that low, rather than dollar cost averaging a little bit every week, it’s going to actually buy multi,000 slugs of Bitcoin at 50 uh 62,057. There are other people a person I was talking to today uh yesterday or maybe Monday who plans to buy a substantial amount of Bitcoin and he wants to buy it below the 200E moving average uh which is below 61,700 right now. the the average goes up, you know, slightly uh every day, but he wants to buy Bitcoin below the 200-week moving average because typically Warren Buffett, for example, says, “Hey, anytime a good asset is trading below the 200E moving average, that’s like serious value territory.” So Warren Buffett is famous for buying assets, not Bitcoin specifically, but assets in general when they are trading below the 200E moving average, which again is that 61,700. There’s a whole bunch of capital that unlocks at 61,700. Now, that doesn’t mean it’s enough to keep the price from going lower. Maybe all of that demand for buying Bitcoin below the 200E moving average. Maybe all of that demand is, you know, overwhelmed by sellers who are willing to sell that cheap. And at which point, you know, it hits 60,000. Well, guess what? There’s a bunch of people who the first time Bitcoin hit 60,000, they said, “If it ever touches 60,000 again, I’m buying a lot because that’s seriously on sale.” Well, guess what? If it touches 60,000 again, it unlocks all of those additional wave of people. So, right now, Bitcoin has already unlocked the capital of everybody who is willing to buy it down to 63,000. It’s about to hit the next big wave of demand at 61,700 at the 200E moving average. Then it hits another big wave of demand at 60,000. Then there’s a whole another big wave of demand at 58,000 of what’s called the 58k gang. So back in 2021 and subsequent to, you know, after 2021, a huge number of people just so happened to buy Bitcoin right at $58,000. So it became a meme on the internet called the 58k gang, which was basically like everybody talking to each other and figuring out that somehow everybody had seemed to buy some Bitcoin at $58,000. So maybe if it drops 58,000, guess what? There’s a massive army of the 58k gang out there that promised themselves if they could ever buy Bitcoin again at 58, they would. Then you’ve got the people down at the, you know, $54,000, which is the um realized price, and saying, “Look, if Bitcoin ever touches the realized price, historically, it’s never goes below the realized price, at least not for more than, you know, any meaningful time at all.” So there’s people who are like, “Look, it only it barely ever touches the 200 week.” There’s other people saying, “No, I’ve got to have the, you know, the the the uh the realized price down at 54,000.” You know, there’s just everybody’s got some number in their head. And every time the price drops, it unlocks more and more capital. Now, the reason sometimes the price continues to drop, for example, you know, it drops from 67 to 65 to 63, is as the price drops, just like we talked about in the previous video, some people can’t withstand the roller coaster, right? So some people who thought they could hold on to their Bitcoin, when the price drops from 67 to 63, they’re like, I’m done. I just can’t take it anymore. I never thought it’d get this cheap. I’m out. So yeah, so those that demand has to overcome that supply of the new people that, you know, thought they could handle the roller coaster the first few rides and now they’ve had one too many and this last, you know, the last big drop on the roller coaster got them and they’re like, I’m out. You know, I’m capitulating. The Bitcoin I bought at 95, I’m selling at 62. So yeah, we have to overcome that selling. But again, they’re selling it to people with strong hands. They’re selling it to people who are buying it at 63, and they’re super excited to own it at 63, and they’re not planning on selling it until it’s 150. So anyway, the Bitcoin just continues to rotate from weak hands into strong hands. And like every bare market, this one will end and everyone will wish they had bought more Bitcoin while it was on sale, just like they always do every single time without fail. It always goes this way. It always looks this way. The pattern is the same. If you were sitting around in 2012 or 2014 or 2018 or 2022, you’d be experiencing the exact same emotions. The exact same patterns would be playing out. The exact same people would be all worried that Bitcoin’s going to zero. The exact same people would be capitulating who bought high and were positive they could survive through the downturn and they just can’t take it anymore and they’re getting off the roller coaster right when it’s almost over. This is equivalent to people swimming 90% of the way across a pond and then deciding it’s just too hard and turning back. And you’re looking at them, you’re like real, you realize that the the the mile long pond, you’ve swam 5,000 of the 5,280 ft of this thing and you’ve decided it’s too hard and so you’re going to swim 5,000 ft back instead of the 280 ft it would take to get you to the other side. That’s basically where we are. It’s like hold through whatever the next, you know, few days, few weeks holds and then you’re golden and you can enjoy the amazing views and the best performing asset in the world for years into the future. But again, a lot of people won’t make it. They’ll get off at exactly the wrong time, which is what always happens. They capitulate at the bottom. And when you see that final wave of capitulation of all the people who can’t handle it selling at the bottom, well, that’s the bottom. There’s no sellers left. They’ve all been washed out. As Jack Maller says, you know, markets, all markets, not unique to Bitcoin, they either scare you out or they wear you out. They typically scare you out on something like February 5th, which is the price pain capitulation, or they wear you out today, June 3rd, on the time paying capitulation, which is it’s just been grinding so long with so many ups and downs for four solid months. People just can’t take it anymore. They throw in the towel and they walk away. And you know, again, human behavior. But if you can hold on through that, you get to enjoy the view on the other side, which is Bitcoin continues to be the best performing asset in the world over any meaningful time frame. So anyway, uh if you could buy more Bitcoin, I would uh if it goes any lower than it is now, you know, below the 200E moving average, I’ll buy an additional $10,000 with a Bitcoin back loan. I don’t recommend Bitcoin back loans, but hey, once the price gets cheap enough, the liquidation levels are end up being so low that I am not really worried about it. Uh, plus I always over collateral as collateral. Also, with a Bitcoin back loan, however much they tell me I have to put up as collateral, I always put up like I always put up like twice as much collateral as they require so that my liquidation levels are so ridiculously low that it’s completely impossible that Bitcoin I mean like I typically have liquidation levels at like $25,000 per per coin or something just ridiculously low so I don’t have to worry about it. So anyway, Bitcoin will be fine. Everything’s on track. Its monetary properties are perfect. The network is operating perfectly. People are scared. We’re getting the time paying capitulation. Watch the video I just did a second ago or 10 minutes ago if you want to learn about time paying versus price paying capitulation. Bitcoin will bounce back. It always does. Everything’s fine. Buy as much as you can. Hold on to it for as long as conceivably possible. Same advice as always and it’s never been wrong. 17.5 years and counting of Bitcoin.